The Employment data released Friday are relatively clearer than the data we have seen over the last couple of months. When we’re discussing economic data, “clarity” is only a relative term and given the almost complete opacity of the last few reports, that is a low hurdle.
The Payrolls number produced +192k new jobs, which was about as-expected, with 58k net upward revisions to the prior two months. That is close enough to be a neutral report, and if the market hadn’t been set up to expect a surprise I don’t think this number would have caused a bond market rally or a stock market decline. But people wanted more after +36k last month. The underlying trend is in the low 100s, and investors really want to believe the economy is healed and growing strongly again. We aren’t there yet. But at least we have a fairly steady, slow climb in Employment (if you smooth out the Census bubble) – see the Chart below (click to enlarge). The Unemployment Rate dropped to 8.9%, rather than bouncing higher to 9.1% as was expected. This is cheery news, although the participation rate is still a sore spot that takes the shine off this improvement.
Smooth out the Census bubble and we have a steady, albeit slow, rise in jobs growth.
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