Friday, February 15, 2013

The Economy Might Be So Much Stronger Than You Think

The worst part about trying to study the economy is that no one really has any idea what's going on, ever. The metrics we have at our disposal are, at best, intelligent guesses, and flawed by theoretical error.

Late last year, I interviewed a great investor, Rob Arnott, who pointed out a flaw in the most popular economic metric, gross domestic product:

GDP is a terrible measure. It measures spending, not prosperity. So the family with the BMW, their GDP, GFP, Gross Family Product, just soared because they just spent money they didn't have. To the extent that we're engaged in deficit spending, we're spending money that we don't have. We're creating an illusion of prosperity that has consequences. That debt has to be paid back eventually and it leads to a lowering of future GDP in order to bolster current GDP, and puts us on a trajectory for really disappointing GDP growth in the coming decade.

This is smart. If the economy is fueled by rising debt, then growth today comes at the expense of tomorrow.

I asked Arnott which metrics he prefers. He responded:

I like looking at GDP net of new debt, because just as a family buying a car they can't afford makes them feel prosperous, it's phony prosperity. The same holds true for a nation that's on a consumer credit binge or that's on a government spending binge. You create phony GDP, which will disappear, and when it disappears, you feel the consequences.

Some would quibble that when the proceeds of debt are invested wisely -- a smart business expansion, or a new highway -- future growth prospects rise. But let's leave that aside for a moment and run with the idea that the best way to measure economic growth is GDP minus new debt.

Most, I think, would assume that doing so would make current GDP growth look worse than it's been reported. But it's actually the other way around. One of the most important statistics of the last five years is that total debt throughout the economy has declined in real terms (adjusted for inflation, the same way GDP is calculated). Yes, the federal government is running huge deficits. But consumers, businesses, banks, and local governments have been shedding an unprecedented amount of debt. Add it all up, and you get this:

Source: Federal Reserve, "Total Credit Market Debt Owed," adjusted by CPI All-Items. Y-Axis doesn't start at zero to better show change.

Since peaking in the first quarter of 2009, total debt throughout the economy has declined in real terms by $2.7 trillion, from $58 trillion to $55.3 trillion. GDP is currently $15.8 trillion, so the decline in real debt isn't insignificant. It's 17% of the economy over four years. To be logically consistent with Arnott's favorite metric, that amount should be added back in to today's GDP figures to get a true sense of growth.

There's some more quibbling to do�here, since the decline in debt we're experiencing today is the flip side of an unsustainable debt boom last decade. We have to live below our means for as long as we lived above our means until a healthy balance is reached. And since we probably haven't reached that balance yet, adding the debt decline back into GDP masks a necessary adjustment. We are shedding debt because we need to be.

But these numbers highlight two important points.

One, it should be no surprise that the economy is in a funk. Growth isn't slow because we've lost our ability to innovate, or some vague reference to "uncertainty." It's slow because we're in the middle of the first debt deleveraging since the Great Depression. Just as a buildup of debt artificially juices the economy, working it off slows the economy down below its potential -- that was Arnott's entire point. "When it disappears, you feel the consequences," he said. That's us! Today! We're feeling the consequences! That's why we have 7.9% unemployment. It's actually amazing that we've been able to slowly grow the economy and bring down unemployment over the last four years all while deleveraging. Historically, debt deleveragings are characterized by economies collapsing into utter depression. We haven't. Hedge fund billionaire Ray Dalio says we're experiencing "the most beautiful deleveraging on record."

Two, the end of deleveraging could be a big boost to the economy, and will ultimately be how we get back to normal growth. Debt as a share of GDP has declined every year since 2008. If that metric simply went flat, economic growth would be about a percentage point higher per year than it currently is. The blog Calculated Risk has shown that if people weren't using their homes as ATMs last decade, the economy would have been in or near recession for most of the 2002-2006 period. As a corollary, if people weren't paying down as fast as they can today, we'd be closer to normal growth. The economy, in other words, might be stronger than you think.�

Thursday, February 14, 2013

Is the U.S. Economy in a Recession?

On the back of small gains yesterday, stocks opened lower this morning, with the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC  ) and the narrower, price-weighted Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI  ) down 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively, as of 10:05 a.m. EST.

The macro view
In an interviewfor Yahoo! Finance's Breakout, Rob Arnott, the CEO of Research Affiliates said:

If we wound up with a negative GDP [growth in the fourth quarter] with a surge in end-of-year dividends and bonus payouts that would have been made this quarter, what's this quarter going to look like? I'm concerned. I think we're definitely in a slowdown relative to last year, which was anemic enough, and quite possible already in recession. If that's the case, the market is shrugging off recession, fiscal cliff, debt ceiling, and Europe -- well, that's a lot to shrug off.

Is the U.S. economy in recession? I think it's unlikely. The following graph shows a monthly series of the probability of recession, as derived by a model based on four variables: nonfarm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales. The vertical bars of grey shading represent actual recessions.

Note that the most recent probability estimate for November, 0.22%, is much lower than the indicator has been at the start of any recession since 1967, with the possible exception of the Nov. 1973 to March 1975 recession (the indicator was at just 0.32% in Oct. 1973).

Furthermore, last quarter's GDP growth was barely negative at -0.1% -- and this was the first estimate, which is often subject to considerable volatility once the revisions come in. While it's not impossible, I don't think we are in a recession. Nevertheless, I think Arnott is wise in suggesting that investor revise their expectations down, just as he told my Foolish colleague Morgan Housel in December.

Are you at ease...or nervous? It's been a great five-year run for investors, with the Dow and S&P at or near all-time highs. Yet fears abound. When will the next downturn hit? Will political gridlock lead to portfolio-killing inflation? To learn how to protect your portfolio, click here for free guidance from the Motley Fool Pro Academy!

Finra warns bond investors on duration if rates rise

Finra warned investors today that if interest rates rise - as most market pros expect - bond investors could be slammed by long duration.

In an investor alert, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority Inc. told investors that in the event of rising interest rates, “outstanding bonds, particularly those with a low interest rate and high duration may experience significant price drops.”

A bond fund with 10-year duration will decrease in value by 10% if rates rise one percentage point, the alert warns.

Bond-fund investors can find measures of duration in a fund's fact sheet, Finra says, and individual bond investors can check with their investment professional, the bond's issuer or use an online calculator to get the figure.

Short duration doesn't mean risk-free, the alert says.

“Bonds and bond funds are subject to inflation risk, call risk, default risk and other risk factors,” the warning says.

3 Reasons SunPower Is Leading the Charge in Solar

Shares of SunPower (NASDAQ: SPWR  ) are exploding higher again today, continuing a wild run the stock has been on since late 2012. SunPower hasn't been the only stock moving higher over the past three months, but it is one of the biggest movers.

First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR  ) has also moved higher as sentiment for solar has improved, but not in the same fashion. Suntech Power (NYSE: STP  ) , the Chinese giant, is having a good year as well, although leverage is playing a big role in that.

SPWR Total Return Price data by YCharts.

I think this is just the start for SunPower, and here are the three biggest reasons why.

Efficiency
What separates SunPower from the competition is the efficiency of its panels. SunPower has panels that are 21% efficient when most module makers are selling traditional panels in the range of 15% to 16% efficiency. First Solar has conversion efficiency of just 12.7%, which�is why the company focuses on projects where it can reduce balance of system costs and make the cost of electricity competitive.

The advantage of efficiency is that you can get more power from the same installation. There's little need to increase the cost of wiring, inverters, land, or permitting -- just use a more efficient panel. As the cost of panels have become a smaller percentage of the total cost to install solar this is a key, particularly in the residential market.

GTM Research estimated that the average cost for a Chinese best in class solar module during Q4 was $0.59 per�watt. That would be a component cost that goes into an installation that on average costs $5.21 per watt in a residential setting, or $2.40 per watt for utility scale (Q3 2012 the latest available). If the cost of the module is a relatively small percentage of the total installation cost, it's worth upgrading to a more efficient one, even if it's more expensive. I ran through an example that illustrates how a more efficient panel will actually save money in an article found here.

Balance sheet
SunPower doesn't have the best balance sheet in the world, but compared to other solar manufacturers, it looks like a model citizen. Cash stands at $504 million with $839 million in debt. Keep in mind that non-GAAP gross margin stood at 18.7% last quarter.

Compare that to Chinese rivals, and SunPower looks great. Suntech Power had net debt of $1.6 billion as of the first quarter of 2012, the last time we got detailed financials. Considering that the company has lost tens of millions since then, it's safe to say the balance sheet has gotten worse.

Yingli Green Energy (NYSE: YGE  ) had $1.9 billion in net debt as of the third quarter and reported a negative gross margin of 22.7%.

LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK  ) makes even Chinese companies look bad, with $2.7 billion in net debt and a negative 11.2% gross margin. There's no way the company can dig out of that hole without a handout from the Chinese government.

These three stocks have risen along with SunPower over the past three months, but they show no signs of making a profit, and they have no discernable way to pay off current debt loads. SunPower, on the other hand, has relatively little debt, positive margins, and the backing of oil giant Total even if times get tough.

Research and development
To stay ahead in solar, you have to keep improving your products and cut costs, all at the same time. SunPower does both by investing in R&D, something few other solar manufacturers do.

In 2012, SunPower spent $63 million in R&D, cutting costs 25%, rolling out third-generation Maxeon solar cells and a 21% efficient panel, and moving forward with the C7 Tracker, which could improve the company's offerings in the utility space.

As the industry's competition improves, this will continue to be a key differentiator for SunPower. When you start with better panels, and you have the R&D to improve from there, it is very difficult for competitors to catch up.

Foolish bottom line
Solar is exploding right now, and SunPower is leading the way. I don't think the momentum stops here considering the strong balance sheet, improving income statement, high efficiency, and focus on developing new products.�

One of the likely solar winners
SunPower may be taking the glory right now, but let's not forget about First Solar, one of only a few solar companies that actually turn a profit. If you're looking for continuing updates and guidance on the company whenever news breaks, we've created a bra-new report that details every mu-know side of this stock. To get started, just click here now.

Can HP Hold On to Its Dow Seat?

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI  ) is a pretty stable group. Only three of the 30 current members have joined in the last four years. The entire index was unchanged for 27 years, between 1959 and 1976. All in all, the roster has changed just 49 times since its inception in 1884 for an average of 2.6 years between every iteration.

But there might be change afoot again less than a year after UnitedHealth Group (NYSE: UNH  ) snagged a seat. Kraft Foods (NASDAQ: KRFT  ) split into two companies that didn't have enough individual heft to stay on the Dow, leaving a spot open for the health insurance giant. UnitedHealth has outperformed both the Dow and the core Kraft ticker by a hair since that index change.

I can smell another breakup like Kraft's coming. This time, analysts and activist investors agree that Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ  ) would be better off if the company were split up and sold for parts.

Investors might benefit from HP separating into a consumer business and an enterprise vendor, because this would give the company a chance to allocate the right resources where they are needed -- without trampling on the concerns of the other half. CEO Meg Whitman doesn't like the idea at all, noting that turnarounds of this magnitude take lots of time. In this case, HP's recovery could be five years away.

Moreover, HP's sector is going through some major changes right now. On the consumer side, PC systems are losing mind share and market share to tablets and smartphones. Meanwhile, cloud-based services have overthrown the traditional server market. Even if HP does the sensible thing and splits up, each segment would still have a hard time turning its fortunes around.

For what it's worth, a split would almost certainly remove HP from the Dow for much the same reasons Kraft had to go. Two tickers can't inhabit one Dow slot, and the united company is already the third-smallest of all 30 Dow members. The stock has lost 65% of its value over the last three years, and cutting it in half again would kill its standing as a credible blue-chip investment.

HPQ data by YCharts.

Keep an eye out for news on HP's future, because there might be some Dow drama written between the lines.

Following the massive wave of mobile computing, HP is rapidly shifting its strategy under the leadership of CEO Meg Whitman. But does this make HP one of the least appreciated turnaround stories on the market, or is this a minor detour on its road to irrelevance? The Motley Fool's technology analyst details exactly what investors need to know about HP in our new premium research report. Just click here now to get your copy today.

Are You Expecting This from Daktronics?

Daktronics (Nasdaq: DAKT  ) is expected to report Q3 earnings on Feb. 19. Here's what Wall Street wants to see:

The 10-second takeaway
Comparing the upcoming quarter to the prior-year quarter, average analyst estimates predict Daktronics's revenues will expand 0.8% and EPS will expand 75.0%.

The average estimate for revenue is $123.9 million. On the bottom line, the average EPS estimate is $0.07.

Revenue details
Last quarter, Daktronics booked revenue of $149.9 million. GAAP reported sales were 10% higher than the prior-year quarter's $135.9 million.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Dollar amounts in millions. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

EPS details
Last quarter, EPS came in at $0.27. GAAP EPS of $0.27 for Q2 were 200% higher than the prior-year quarter's $0.09 per share.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

Recent performance
For the preceding quarter, gross margin was 28.3%, 510 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was 11.3%, 690 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. Net margin was 7.7%, 480 basis points better than the prior-year quarter.

Looking ahead

The full year's average estimate for revenue is $532.5 million. The average EPS estimate is $0.59.

Investor sentiment
The stock has a four-star rating (out of five) at Motley Fool CAPS, with 431 members out of 466 rating the stock outperform, and 35 members rating it underperform. Among 94 CAPS All-Star picks (recommendations by the highest-ranked CAPS members), 90 give Daktronics a green thumbs-up, and four give it a red thumbs-down.

Of Wall Street recommendations tracked by S&P Capital IQ, the average opinion on Daktronics is outperform, with an average price target of $12.17.

Looking for alternatives to Daktronics? It takes more than great companies to build a fortune for the future. Learn the basic financial habits of millionaires next door and get focused stock ideas in our free report, "3 Stocks That Will Help You Retire Rich." Click here for instant access to this free report.

  • Add Daktronics to My Watchlist.

Research: Bull Rally Later Today?

Bespoke Investment Group this morning writes of the spooky parallel to the aftermath of the 1987 crash.

Today’s first half-hour rise in the S&P 500 of 4% “is one of the strongest opening half hours for the index since the days following the 1987 crash.”

If history is any guide, say the folks at B.I.G., the market will slacken the next two hours, with the bulls coming back toward the close. From 3pm, Eastern to 4pm, the index has average a 1.66% gain on the 11 days since 1986 when the index was up more than 3% at 10 am Eastern.

Sure enough, the S&P has backed off from its initial climb, but is still up 42 points at 1,152.44.

Has NVIDIA Become the Perfect Stock?

Every investor would love to stumble upon the perfect stock. But will you ever really find a stock that provides everything you could possibly want?

One thing's for sure: You'll never discover truly great investments unless you actively look for them. Let's discuss the ideal qualities of a perfect stock, then decide if NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA  ) fits the bill.

The quest for perfection
Stocks that look great based on one factor may prove horrible elsewhere, making due diligence a crucial part of your investing research. The best stocks excel in many different areas, including these important factors:

  • Growth. Expanding businesses show healthy revenue growth. While past growth is no guarantee that revenue will keep rising, it's certainly a better sign than a stagnant top line.
  • Margins. Higher sales mean nothing if a company can't produce profits from them. Strong margins ensure that company can turn revenue into profit.
  • Balance sheet. At debt-laden companies, banks and bondholders compete with shareholders for management's attention. Companies with strong balance sheets don't have to worry about the distraction of debt.
  • Money-making opportunities. Return on equity helps measure how well a company is finding opportunities to turn its resources into profitable business endeavors.
  • Valuation. You can't afford to pay too much for even the best companies. By using normalized figures, you can see how a stock's simple earnings multiple fits into a longer-term context.
  • Dividends. For tangible proof of profits, a check to shareholders every three months can't be beat. Companies with solid dividends and strong commitments to increasing payouts treat shareholders well.

With those factors in mind, let's take a closer look at NVIDIA.

Factor

What We Want to See

Actual

Pass or Fail?

Growth

5-year annual revenue growth > 15%

1.8%

Fail

1-year revenue growth > 12%

5%

Fail

Margins

Gross margin > 35%

51.6%

Pass

Net margin > 15%

12.2%

Fail

Balance sheet

Debt to equity < 50%

0.4%

Pass

Current ratio > 1.3

4.46

Pass

Opportunities

Return on equity > 15%

11.6%

Fail

Valuation

Normalized P/E < 20

20.03

Fail

Dividends

Current yield > 2%

2.4%

Pass

5-year dividend growth > 10%

NM

NM

Total score

4 out of 9

Source: S&P Capital IQ. NM = not meaningful; NVIDIA paid its first dividend in November 2012. Total score = number of passes.

Since we looked at NVIDIA last year, the company has given back the point it gained from 2011 to 2012. Even a new dividend wasn't enough to outweigh falling net margins and returns on equity, and the stock has fallen more than 20% over the past year.

NVIDIA has made a huge transformation in its business, having diversified well beyond its roots as a graphics-chip maker for the PC industry to move into both professional solutions and consumer products. In particular, its Tegra mobile processor line has made huge inroads in the mobile market, with the company scoring places in Google's (NASDAQ: GOOG  ) Nexus 7 and Microsoft's (NASDAQ: MSFT  ) Surface RT tablets. The Surface hasn't performed as well as the Nexus, much to Microsoft's chagrin, but the boost to NVIDIA's reputation is significant from both placements.

NVIDIA also had a competitive advantage over rival mobile-chip maker Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM  ) for much of 2012, as supply problems at Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE: TSM  ) constrained its ability to manufacture chips using the 28-nanometer production process. That affected Qualcomm more than NVIDIA, because NVIDIA's Tegra 2 and Tegra 3 chips are built on 40-nanometer processes rather than the 28-nanometer that Qualcomm's processors rely on. But the new Tegra 4 is 28-nanometer-based, so Taiwan Semi will need to step up to help NVIDIA keep production levels up.

For NVIDIA to improve, it needs to build on these successes and defend its turf against Qualcomm and other rivals. Any signs of weakness, as we saw yesterday in the company's negative forecast for current-quarter sales, could further exacerbate the stock's declines.

Keep searching
No stock is a sure thing, but some stocks are a lot closer to perfect than others. By looking for the perfect stock, you'll go a long way toward improving your investing prowess and learning how to separate out the best investments from the rest.

Learn more about NVIDIA in the Fool's new premium report on the stock, in which we identify several massive opportunities that many investors are overlooking. We'll help you sort fact from fiction to determine whether NVIDIA is a buy at today's prices. Simply�click here now�to unlock your copy of this comprehensive report.

Click here to add NVIDIA to My Watchlist, which can find all of our Foolish analysis on it and all your other stocks.

Hawkins Passes This Key Test

There's no foolproof way to know the future for Hawkins (Nasdaq: HWKN  ) or any other company. However, certain clues may help you see potential stumbles before they happen -- and before your stock craters as a result.

A cloudy crystal ball
In this series, we use accounts receivable and days sales outstanding to judge a company's current health and future prospects. It's an important step in separating the pretenders from the market's best stocks. Alone, AR -- the amount of money owed the company -- and DSO -- the number of days' worth of sales owed to the company -- don't tell you much. However, by considering the trends in AR and DSO, you can sometimes get a window onto the future.

Sometimes, problems with AR or DSO simply indicate a change in the business (like an acquisition), or lax collections. However, AR that grows more quickly than revenue, or ballooning DSO, can, at times, suggest a desperate company that's trying to boost sales by giving its customers overly generous payment terms. Alternately, it can indicate that the company sprinted to book a load of sales at the end of the quarter, like used-car dealers on the 29th of the month. (Sometimes, companies do both.)

Why might an upstanding firm like Hawkins do this? For the same reason any other company might: to make the numbers. Investors don't like revenue shortfalls, and employees don't like reporting them to their superiors.

Is Hawkins sending any potential warning signs? Take a look at the chart below, which plots revenue growth against AR growth, and DSO:

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. FQ = fiscal quarter.

The standard way to calculate DSO uses average accounts receivable. I prefer to look at end-of-quarter receivables, but I've plotted both above.

Watching the trends
When that red line (AR growth) crosses above the green line (revenue growth), I know I need to consult the filings. Similarly, a spike in the blue bars indicates a trend worth worrying about. Hawkins's latest average DSO stands at 37.9 days, and the end-of-quarter figure is 37.5 days. Differences in business models can generate variations in DSO, and business needs can require occasional fluctuations, but all things being equal, I like to see this figure stay steady. So, let's get back to our original question: Based on DSO and sales, does Hawkins look like it might miss its numbers in the next quarter or two?

I don't think so. AR and DSO look healthy. For the last fully reported fiscal quarter, Hawkins's year-over-year revenue grew 1.6%, and its AR dropped 0.3%. That looks OK. End-of-quarter DSO decreased 1.9% from the prior-year quarter. It was about the same as the prior quarter. Still, I'm no fortuneteller, and these are just numbers. Investors putting their money on the line always need to dig into the filings for the root causes and draw their own conclusions.

Looking for alternatives to Hawkins? It takes more than great companies to build a fortune for the future. Learn the basic financial habits of millionaires next door and get focused stock ideas in our free report, "3 Stocks That Will Help You Retire Rich." Click here for instant access to this free report.

  • Add Hawkins to My Watchlist.

Wednesday, February 13, 2013

Why Bankrate Shares Plummeted

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of online financial data publisher Bankrate (NYSE: RATE  ) sank 19% today after its quarterly results and outlook disappointed Wall Street.

So what: Bankrate's fourth-quarter results -- adjusted EPS of $0.06 on revenue of $93.2 million versus the consensus of $0.11 and $106 million, respectively -- and full-year outlook were so dismal that analysts are being forced to recalibrate their growth estimates yet again. Softness in credit cards and weak lead generation continue to weigh heavily on the company, giving investors little hope for a short-term stock price boost.

Now what: Management now expects 2013 revenue to remain pretty much unchanged from 2012's top line of $457 million, well below Wall Street's view of $498.5 million. "In insurance, the�strategic transition to higher quality, high-margin leads is moving even more aggressively forward," CEO Thomas Evans reassured investors. "Encouragingly, in credit cards, we're beginning to see the increased marketing activity across our portfolio of card issuers after a period of marketplace caution." However, given the strong headwinds facing Bankrate and its still-significant debt load, buying into that turnaround talk isn't exactly prudent at this point.

Interested in more info on Bankrate? Add it to your watchlist.

2013 and beyond
The Motley Fool's chief investment officer has selected his No. 1 stock for the next year. Find out which stock it is in our brand-new free report: "The Motley Fool's Top Stock for 2013." I invite you to take a copy, free for a limited time. Just click here to access the report and find out the name of this under-the-radar company.

Is Quanta Services Going to Burn You?

There's no foolproof way to know the future for Quanta Services (NYSE: PWR  ) or any other company. However, certain clues may help you see potential stumbles before they happen -- and before your stock craters as a result.

A cloudy crystal ball
In this series, we use accounts receivable and days sales outstanding to judge a company's current health and future prospects. It's an important step in separating the pretenders from the market's best stocks. Alone, AR -- the amount of money owed the company -- and DSO -- the number of days' worth of sales owed to the company -- don't tell you much. However, by considering the trends in AR and DSO, you can sometimes get a window onto the future.

Sometimes, problems with AR or DSO simply indicate a change in the business (like an acquisition), or lax collections. However, AR that grows more quickly than revenue, or ballooning DSO, can, at times, suggest a desperate company that's trying to boost sales by giving its customers overly generous payment terms. Alternately, it can indicate that the company sprinted to book a load of sales at the end of the quarter, like used-car dealers on the 29th of the month. (Sometimes, companies do both.)

Why might an upstanding firm like Quanta Services do this? For the same reason any other company might: to make the numbers. Investors don't like revenue shortfalls, and employees don't like reporting them to their superiors.

Is Quanta Services sending any potential warning signs? Take a look at the chart below, which plots revenue growth against AR growth, and DSO:

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. FQ = fiscal quarter.

The standard way to calculate DSO uses average accounts receivable. I prefer to look at end-of-quarter receivables, but I've plotted both above.

Watching the trends
When that red line (AR growth) crosses above the green line (revenue growth), I know I need to consult the filings. Similarly, a spike in the blue bars indicates a trend worth worrying about. Quanta Services's latest average DSO stands at 70.4 days, and the end-of-quarter figure is 78.7 days. Differences in business models can generate variations in DSO, and business needs can require occasional fluctuations, but all things being equal, I like to see this figure stay steady. So, let's get back to our original question: Based on DSO and sales, does Quanta Services look like it might miss its numbers in the next quarter or two?

The raw numbers suggest potential trouble ahead. For the last fully reported fiscal quarter, Quanta Services's year-over-year revenue grew 34.7%, and its AR grew 42.8%. That looks ok, but end-of-quarter DSO increased 6.0% over the prior-year quarter. It was up 15.1% versus the prior quarter. That demands a good explanation. Still, I'm no fortuneteller, and these are just numbers. Investors putting their money on the line always need to dig into the filings for the root causes and draw their own conclusions.

If you're interested in companies like Quanta Services, you might want to check out the jaw-dropping technology that's about to put 100 million Chinese factory workers out on the street � and the 3 companies that control it. We'll tell you all about them in "The Future is Made in America." Click here for instant access to this free report.

  • Add Quanta Services to My Watchlist.

Ruckus Off 5% Despite Q4 Beat; Q1 View In-Line

Shares of wireless equipment provider Ruckus Wireless (RKUS) are down $1.37, or 5%, at $24.50 in late trading after the company this afternoon reported� Q4 revenue and earnings per share that topped analysts’ estimates, and projected this quarter’s results higher than consensus as well.

Revenue in the three months ended in December rose 51%, year over year, to $62.2 million, yielding EPS per share of 7 cents, excluding some costs.

Analysts had been modeling $60.5 million and 5 cents per share.

For the current quarter, the company sees revenue in a range of $62 million to $64 million, and earnings per share, excluding some costs, of 3 cents to 4 cents.That is� in line with the consensus for $62.6 million and 3 cents.

 

When to Invest in Companies Hurt by Low Natural Gas Prices

Sir Issac Newton's gravitational theory is summed up in one sentence: What goes up, must come down. When it comes to economic theory, though, we also assume that if the price on a limited commodity goes down, then it must go up at some point. In the case of natural gas prices, companies on both the winning and losing sides of the shale gas boom are anxious to know when the party (or plight) will change. Lets take a quick look at where natural gas prices are, where they are going, and how it should affect your portfolio decision making.

Companies from both sides of the aisle
The shale gas boom of the past 18 months or so has sent reverberations throughout the U.S. energy markets. Without sufficient demand for this product, spot prices went on a steady decline all the way down to 12-year lows back in April of last year. This has has a profound effect on several companies, and not always in a good way. There are three major industries that have been hit the hardest by low natural gas prices: natural gas producers (think Chesapeake�Energy� (NYSE: CHK  ) ), coal producers (Peabody Energy), and utility companies that don't have many natural gas operations (Excelon (NYSE: EXC  ) ).

Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price data by YCharts.

On the other hand, both chemical companies and manufacturers have had a pretty impressive run thanks to cheap feedstocks. Companies like LyondellBasell�and Terra Nitrogen, which both use natural gas as a feedstock for plastics and nitrogen fertilizers, respectively, have seen impressive margins in these past couple of quarters thanks in large part to these low gas prices. �

Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price data by YCharts.

Which firms' activities could lead to price increases?�
So how long can we expect natural gas prices to stay down? Surely the prices for a limited resource cannot stay low for long. For this to happen, we will need to see a major uptick in domestic consumption, export volumes, or a combination of both. There is some momentum for both of these directions. Cheniere Energy (NYSEMKT: LNG  ) has locked in long-term contracts to export 2 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas to foreign markets, and both Clean Energy Fuels (NASDAQ: CLNE  ) and Westport Innovations (NASDAQ: WPRT  ) are spearheading the movement to make natural gas a viable transportation fuel in the U.S. If and when these ideas start to take hold, expect natural gas prices to grow right along with these companies.

Based on current prices for natural gas futures contracts, this may take longer than some expect.

Source: Barchart.com, authors calculations (futures prices as of Feb 11, 2013 @ 13:00).

The problem with relying on exports and new demand as a catalyst for higher gas prices is the time associated with these ideas. Cheniere does not expect to make its first delivery of exported natural gas until 2015, and it will surely take even longer for any company to build out an�infrastructure�to make natural gas a comparable replacement to gasoline as a transportation fuel. So, unless there are any major shifts in domestic production in the next couple of months, don't expect prices for natural gas to change too dramatically.

What a Fool believes
The natural gas party will not last forever. As long as there is a disparity in energy prices, either between domestic and foreign markets or between comparable energy sources, there are companies out there that will look to take advantage of the situation, which will ultimately bring prices to an equilibrium. This means investors could potentially jump into companies that are down on their luck because of low natural gas prices and then ride them for the long term.

While the theory behind investing in the natural gas losers makes sense, keep this in mind: The timeline for these improvements could be longer than many expect. For many of these companies, it makes more sense to try to shift their business strategies for the time being rather than hold out for higher gas prices. Chesapeake energy has done so by shifting its production more toward liquids and oil rather than gas only, and Peabody Energy has gone to great lengths to secure long-term export contracts so it can send its coal overseas. �Moves like these, ones that show a�company's�ability to shift its strategy when new market conditions present themselves, will lead to much better outcomes than waiting for natural gas prices to rise.

For more on Chesapeake's transformation
Energy investors would be hard-pressed to find another company trading at a deeper discount than Chesapeake Energy. Its share price depreciated after negative news surfaced concerning the company's management and spiraling debt picture. While these issues still persist, giant steps have been taken to help mitigate the problems. To learn more about Chesapeake and its enormous potential, you're invited to check out The Motley Fool's brand-new premium report on the company. Simply click here now to access your copy, and as an added bonus, you'll receive a full year of key updates and expert guidance as news continues to develop.

General Dynamics Subcontracts Armored Vehicle Work to Thales

On Monday, Thales Canada of Saint-Laurent announced that it has been awarded a $12.4 million subcontract from American defense contractor General Dynamics (NYSE: GD  ) , which is hiring Thales to supply 400 sets of infrared camera sensors and display modules for the Light Armoured Vehicle III Upgrade Project.

LAV III is described as "one of four Family of Land Combat Vehicle projects announced by the Government of Canada," and one that aims to "improve the protection, mobility, and lethality of the Light Armoured Vehicle III fleet." By modernizing a portion of Canada's LAV III fleet, the country's Ministry of National Defence says it hopes to extend the operational usefulness of the vehicle through 2035.

Canada awarded General Dynamics Land Systems' Canadian subsidiary a $1.1 billion contract in October 2011, ordering 550 upgraded LAV IIIs, conditioning the contract award on General Dynamics' reinvesting 100% of the contract value "in business activities in the Canadian economy." By awarding the present subcontract to Thales -- itself a subsidiary of a French defense firm -- General Dynamics is fulfilling part of its promise.

Tuesday, February 12, 2013

Cynosure Beats on Both Top and Bottom Lines

Cynosure (Nasdaq: CYNO  ) reported earnings on Feb. 12. Here are the numbers you need to know.

The 10-second takeaway
For the quarter ended Dec. 31 (Q4), Cynosure beat expectations on revenues and beat expectations on earnings per share.

Compared to the prior-year quarter, revenue expanded significantly and GAAP earnings per share grew significantly.

Margins grew across the board.

Revenue details
Cynosure booked revenue of $42.7 million. The three analysts polled by S&P Capital IQ foresaw revenue of $41.0 million on the same basis. GAAP reported sales were 25% higher than the prior-year quarter's $34.1 million.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Dollar amounts in millions. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

EPS details
EPS came in at $0.27. The four earnings estimates compiled by S&P Capital IQ anticipated $0.23 per share. GAAP EPS of $0.27 for Q4 were 200% higher than the prior-year quarter's $0.09 per share.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

Margin details
For the quarter, gross margin was 58.1%, 300 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was 9.9%, 690 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. Net margin was 9.5%, 630 basis points better than the prior-year quarter.

Looking ahead
Next quarter's average estimate for revenue is $39.8 million. On the bottom line, the average EPS estimate is $0.17.

Next year's average estimate for revenue is $176.6 million. The average EPS estimate is $0.85.

Investor sentiment
The stock has a two-star rating (out of five) at Motley Fool CAPS, with 369 members out of 384 rating the stock outperform, and 15 members rating it underperform. Among 91 CAPS All-Star picks (recommendations by the highest-ranked CAPS members), 84 give Cynosure a green thumbs-up, and seven give it a red thumbs-down.

Of Wall Street recommendations tracked by S&P Capital IQ, the average opinion on Cynosure is outperform, with an average price target of $34.00.

Is Cynosure the best health care stock for you? Learn how to maximize your investment income and "Secure Your Future With 9 Rock-Solid Dividend Stocks," including one above-average health care logistics company. Click here for instant access to this free report.

  • Add Cynosure to My Watchlist.

Why Allot Communications Is Ready to Rebound

Based on the aggregated intelligence of 180,000-plus investors participating in Motley Fool CAPS, the Fool's free investing community, Allot Communications (NASDAQ: ALLT  ) , which develops products to optimize over-the-top Internet traffic for fixed and mobile networks, has earned a respected four-star ranking.

With that in mind, let's take a closer look at Allot and see what CAPS investors are saying about the stock right now.

Allot facts

Headquarters (founded)

Hod-Hasharon, Israel (1996)

Market Cap

$451.4 million

Industry

Systems software

Trailing-12-Month Revenue

$104.8 million

Management

CEO Rami Hadar (since 2006)

CFO Nachum Falek (since 2010)

Return on Equity (average, past 3 years)

(1.9%)

Cash/Debt

$143.1 million / $0

Competitors

Cisco Systems

F5 Networks

Procera Networks

Sources: S&P Capital IQ and Motley Fool CAPS.

On CAPS, 93% of the 767 members who have rated Allot believe the stock will outperform the S&P 500 going forward.

Just yesterday, one of those bulls, fellow Fool Rich Duprey (TMFCop), succinctly summed up the outperform case for our community:

I think Allot is losing out to Procera in many instances, but as the lead contender for [Verizon's] DPI business as it unveils its "6 strikes" policy and the possibility it is preparing itself to be acquired -- it announced it was repaying its Israeli OCS R&D grants back early (the loans prevent a sale of the company to foreign investors) -- I see its new, lower price attractive.

If you want market-thumping returns, you need to put together the best portfolio you can. Of course, despite a strong four-star rating, Allot may not be your top choice.

We've found another growth play we are incredibly excited about -- excited enough to dub it "The Only Stock You Need to Profit from the NEW Technology Revolution." We have compiled a special free report for investors to uncover this stock today. The report is 100% free, but it won't be here forever, so click here to access it now.

Want to see how well (or not so well) the stocks in this series are performing? Follow the TrackPoisedTo CAPS account.

Australia’s Housing Recovery Stalled

End-of-year tallies from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that 2012 ended with a whimper instead of a bang as new-home lending fell 0.5% for the quarter despite state-specific gains. Housing Industry Association specialists are calling it a slight improvement over 2011 and data for 2013 show signs of a strong start. Home values are up across the country and in every capital city save for Melbourne from lows seen in May 2012, but still remain than the short-lived peak witnessed in 2010. It has been a buyer’s market for some time in Australia, but experts believe more balance may return this year. For more on this continue reading the following article from Property Wire.

New home lending remained subdued at the end of 2012 with loans for the construction and purchase of new properties increasing by 1.4% but down 0.5% on a quarterly basis.

The figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics show that for the December quarter of 2012 the total number of seasonally adjusted loans varied considerably from state to state.

Loans increased by 12% in New South Wales, by 6.4% in Western Australia and by 2.1% in Queensland. They fell by 13% in Victoria, by 8.8% in Tasmania and by 1% in South Australia.

The figures also show that the number of loans was up for new dwellings, down for construction, and basically flat for existing dwellings.
 
‘Overall, 2012 can be characterised as year where new home lending just managed to climb out of the lows reached in 2011, with lending for construction and purchase of new homes rising by 8% said Housing Industry Association economist Diwa Hopkins.

She said it was encouraging that the New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia finished off 2012 with positive results as these states will be crucial to an aggregate recovery in new home building.

‘It remains the case that new home lending is among a suite of leading indicators which have yet to clearly signal a broad and sustainable new home building recovery of the scale commensurate with what Australia’s economy and population requires,’ she added.

Meanwhile, the latest index from RP Data shows that home values across Australia’s capital cities were up 1.2% in January, taking the annual movement in dwelling values back into the black with a 1.8% increase over the past 12 months and negating the 1.2% drop in values recorded over the final quarter of 2012.

Since bottoming out in May 2012, dwelling values across the combined capital cities have recovered 3.1% every capital city, apart from Melbourne which is down 0.4%, has recorded an increase in dwelling values over the past year.

The gains in January were mostly focussed within the Brisbane, Sydney and Perth markets where values were up 2%, 1.8% and 1.7% respectively. The Melbourne and Adelaide housing markets remained relatively subdued with dwelling values rising by 0.2% and 0.4% respectively.

According to RP Data’s research director, Tim Lawless, housing market conditions have started the year on a strong footing. ‘These strong January results are likely to have seen some upwards seasonal bias, however the housing market has been on a clear recovery trend since June last year. Capital gains aren't likely to remain this high over the coming months, however we are likely to see the recovery trend continue through 2013,’ he explained.

 

But he pointed out that despite the improving market conditions in January, dwelling values across the combined capital cities remain 4.6% below their 2010 peak.

‘The latest housing market data adds weight to the argument that interest rates may be at the bottom of the cycle. The Reserve Bank will be watching the performance of the housing market closely, and the positive trend in housing values will dampen calls for further interest rate cuts,’ Lawless added.

Additional data is also pointing towards an improvement in the Australia housing market. The average number of days it takes to sell a property was steadily decreasing prior to the seasonal slowdown in December/January, and the rate of vendor discounting was also on a clear trend of improvement.

According to Mr Lawless, these metrics are a sign that vendors are gradually regaining some leverage in the market. ‘The typical capital city house took 55 days to sell in December last year, a vast improvement from the recent high of 76 days recorded in February last year. Additionally, vendors are now discounting their initial asking prices by an average of 6.6% compared with 7.3% a year ago,’ he pointed out.

‘With stock levels remaining high, it is likely to remain a buyers’ market for some time, however I think we are now seeing some balance return to the negotiation table. Buyers are losing some of their negotiation power and homes are selling faster,’ he added.

AAPL: Morgan Stanley Defends ‘Option’ Value, iWatch, iTV Prospects

Apple (AAPL) CEO Tim Cook‘s appearance at the Goldman Sachs technology conference in San Francisco this morning has unleashed several Street points of view. I mentioned Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster appearing on CNBC immediately after Cook’s presentation to talk about prospects for a cheaper iPhone

There was also a note a short while ago from Morgan Stanley’s Katy Huberty, who has an Overweight rating on the shares, and a $630 price target, calling Apple stock a “free option on innovation.”

AAPL shares price in negative earnings growth. We view the stock as a free option on Apple innovation with product refreshes (iPhone / iPad), new distribution (NTT Docomo, China Mobile), and expansion into new segments (iTV or iWatch) as catalysts that could change market perception and valuation.

Huberty thinks the stock currently reflects a long-term earnings per share decline of 4% despite 14% revenue growth. “In other words, investors expect significant share losses and/or margin contraction.”

Huberty thinks the rumored “smart watch,” if true, could be a $10 billion to $15 billion revenue opportunity, perhaps adding $2.50 to $4 to EPS annually. “This assumes a 20% attach rate to the current 500 million active iTunes accounts.”

Huberty still is modeling the potential for $17 billion in revenue from an Apple television set, with perhaps $4.50 per share in earnings contribution. “This assumes 10% penetration of active iTunes accounts and $1,300 average selling price.”

Adds Huberty,

Importantly, iTV and iWatch present new services opportunities that can differentiate Apple’s broader product portfolio, improving investor sentiment around Apple�s ability to maintain market share. Possibilities include, mobile payments service linked to iTunes / iWatch and video search and multi-screen viewing with iTV.

Apple shares are down $9.80, or 2%, at $470.13.

Top Stocks For 2/12/2013-14

Company: Gerber Scientific, Inc, GRB

Price: 6.37

Change: 24.17%

Volume: 71,087

Manufactuting equipment maker Gerber Scientific Inc. said Thursday its profit almost tripled for its fiscal first quarter largely due to foreign exchange swings as revenue rose slightly. Gerber, which makes automated manufacturing systems used for signs, specialty graphics, apparel and optical lenses, said it has identified ways to cut costs that should help its results in the second half.

Its shares rose $1.02, or 20 percent, to $6.15 in morning trading. The company reported net income of $1.5 million, or 6 cents per share, for the three months ended July 31 compared with $514,000, or 2 cents per share, a year ago. The latest results included $700,000 in foreign exchange gains, while its results a year ago refrlected a loss of $700,000 from foreign exchange. Revenue rose 8 percent to $118.3 million from $109.4 million a year ago.

Gerber Scientific, Inc., is the leader in providing innovative end-to-end customer solutions to the world’s sign making, specialty graphics, packaging, apparel, industrial, and ophthalmic lens processing industries. Our software, computerized manufacturing systems, supplies, and service are fully integrated for maximum customer support and flexibility. Their software, computerized manufacturing systems, supplies, and service are fully integrated for maximum customer support and flexibility. The scope and scale of their combined global resources enable our individual business units to leverage each other’s strengths and share efficiencies for operational excellence. Focused on helping their customers win in their markets, Gerber Scientific continues to pursue new ways to drive innovation, lower costs, and deliver world-class service.

The Views and Opinions Expressed by the author are his or her opinions only and do not necessarily reflect those of this Web-Site or its agents, affiliates, officers, directors, staff, or contractors. The author at the time of this article did not own any shares or receive any consideration financial or otherwise from any company or person mentioned or referred to in the article.

THIS IS NOT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY SECURITY!

Eric Schmidt To Sell $2.5B Of Google Stock, 42% Of Stake

Google�s Executive Chairman Eric Schmidt is set to unload a sizable chunk of his Google holdings, according to a regulatory filing.

An 8-K filed with the SEC Friday indicates that Schmidt, who previously served as Google�s chief executive, will sell up to 3.2 million shares � he owns 7.6 million � a stake worth slightly more than $2.5 billion at Friday�s closing price of $785.37.

The sale comes just about 10 months after Google took a unique approach to splitting its shares, issuing additional nonvoting stock that further cemented the control of the company in the hands of CEO Larry Page, his co-founder Sergey Brin and Schmidt.

Google�s filing says Schmidt�s sale is part of a long-term effort to diversify assets.

Shares fell 0.9% to $778.50 in pre-market trading.

Eric Schmidt

Stocks end lower on year’s lightest volume

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) � U.S. stocks finished slightly lower Monday on the lightest volume trading day of 2013, as energy and retail shares underperformed and investors reassessed a rally that�s lifted benchmark indexes 6% this year.

Click to Play Week ahead: State of the Union, G20

President Obama will give his State of the Union address on Tuesday, and later in the week, G20 leaders convene in Moscow.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average�DJIA �never rose above its Friday close and ended down 21.73 points, or 0.2%, to finish at 13,971.24, with 16 of its 30 components ending down. The index traded within a narrow 53-point range throughout the session.

On the Dow, shares of Home Depot Inc. HD �and UnitedHealth Group Inc. UNH �led the decline, falling about 1%. Shares of blue-chips Microsoft Corp. MSFT �and Pfizer Inc. PFE �gained about 1%.

The S&P 500 Index SPX �slipped 0.92 point, or less than 0.1%, to close at 1,517.01, with 7 out of its 10 major sectors trading lower. The benchmark rose 0.3% last week, gaining for a sixth consecutive week.

Energy stocks led the decline even as crude futures traded higher Monday and refiners held onto recent gains. Read more on energy stocks.

The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite index COMP �fell 1.87 points, or less than 0.1%, to close at 3,192.

Trading volume was at its lowest volume of the year, bumping Friday�s low volume for that honor. Volume of NYSE-listed shares was 2.6 billion. For Nasdaq-listed shares, it was 1.54 billion. For the year to date, average daily volume is 3.59 billion for NYSE-listed shares, and 1.9 billion for Nasdaq-listed shares, according to Barclays.

Declining stocks outnumbered gainers by about 16 to 13 on the NYSE, and slightly outnumbered them on the Nasdaq.

�Largely absent any news, I�d say markets are working off an overbought phase and taking a pause,� said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott.

Stocks have been trading near five-year highs, raising the possibility the market might be able to break out of its long period of lackluster performance, or what�s known as a secular bear market. Read: Is Bull Sprint Becoming a Marathon? at WSJ.com.

Goldman Sachs has grown cautious on global equities in the near term, cutting its recommendation to neutral from overweight on a three-month basis. Read more on Goldman's bearish views.

MARKETS | Expanded markets coverage
�The Tell: Market news and analysis
� U.S. and Canada markets |Canada section
�Columns:Stocks |Oil |Gold |Bonds |Dollar

TOOLS AND DATA | Markets data menu
� My Portfolio: Know where your funds are?
�Real-time currency exchange rates
�After-hours stock screener
/conga/story/misc/markets.html240610

Most Asian markets were closed, eliminating one more possible driver for the market, said Dan Greenhaus, chief global strategist at BTIG.

While Monday may be lacking catalysts, retail sales data on Wednesday will likely have a big effect on stocks, according to a note from Citi�s Steven Englander.

With higher taxes kicking in on Jan. 1, �retail sales will be the first really hard data on the impact of the tax hike,� Englander said. Read what's expected from retail sales.

Economists polled by MarketWatch forecast sales to show a scant 0.1% seasonally adjusted increase, reflecting the expiration of a payroll tax cut, higher gasoline prices, and delayed tax refunds.

The only other possible market catalyst in the next day or two is President Barack Obama�s annual State of the Union address Tuesday night. Read 'Obama to reward coalition in State of the Union speech.'

Shares of Google Inc. GOOG �declined 0.4% after the Internet-search firm said late Friday that its chairman, Eric Schmidt, planned to sell nearly half of his stake in the company.

In the currency markets, the dollar EURUSD fell against the euro, but the U.S. dollar Index DXY �, which measures the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, was trading at 80.35, compared with 80.25 late Friday. Read more on currencies.

News reports said officials from the Group of Seven nations continue to weigh the possibility of issuing a statement aimed at averting a so-called currency war. A pair of officials from the Group of 20 told Reuters that a G-7 statement could be released ahead of the meeting of G-20 finance ministers and central bankers in Moscow this week.

5 Rock-Solid Dividends to Buy Today

One of the best ways for investors to make money investing is by looking for companies that pay regular dividends. This is one of the best ways for companies to pay investors back and it forces management to focus on cash flow, which is what investors like.

With the 10-year Treasury currently paying just 2%, dividends from solid companies that will be around for the long haul are a way for investors to make a better yield and potentially benefit from price appreciation. Here are five dividend stocks from rock-solid companies that yield more than Treasuries.

Intel
There is a lot of pessimism in the investment community over any company with ties to the PC. One of the poster children is Intel (NASDAQ: INTC  ) , the chip maker that has dominated the PC for decades but has struggled to get any meaningful share in the mobile space. Intel has been stagnant as the PC declines, but the market is treating the stock as if PCs will die tomorrow and Intel won't ever be able to take meaningful share in the mobile space. I just don't think either is the case and I believe there's upside to go along with a great dividend.�

Intel has $18.2 billion in cash, pays a lofty 4.3% dividend yield, and has a P/E ratio of just 10. As long as the PC doesn't die tomorrow, investors should be getting a great dividend for years to come. �

3M
Want a rock-solid dividend? How about a company that has paid a dividend for 96 consecutive years and has increased that dividend 55 years in a row? Let me offer up 3M (NYSE: MMM  ) . The company makes everything from Post-it Notes to bandages, products many of us don't think twice about purchasing on a regular basis. This creates a company so diversified that its dividend is safe even through disastrous economic and financial situations. �

Right now, 3M yields 2.5% for investors, and if 55 years of dividend growth continues, it is likely to outyield the Treasury on a cost basis for shareholders for years to come. It may not be as safe as a Treasury, but it's close.

Verizon
Warren Buffett often talks about investing in companies with a competitive moat. There may not be a better moat than Verizon (NYSE: VZ  ) subsidiary Verizon Wireless has in the U.S. mobile market. The company owns the spectrum to operate a wireless network, but even better is the capital cost it takes to put that spectrum to work. Verizon Wireless has spent billions of dollars building a 3G and now 4G wireless network to dominate the wireless space. It's this superior network that creates an advantage over AT&T and Sprint that is nearly impossible to catch up with. Verizon has staying power to attract customers and pricing power to charge those customers more money.

Verizon currently pays a 4.6% dividend yield, the highest on this list. But it also holds one of the strongest competitive advantages.

ExxonMobil
Let's be honest, the oil business isn't going anywhere anytime soon. Oil consumption may be falling domestically but it's rising globally, and ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM  ) will be there to take advantage. The company also has large exposure to the natural gas market, which is struggling with lower prices but provides some diversification.

ExxonMobil generated $44.9 billion in earnings last year and $63.8 billion in cash from operations and asset sales. That's plenty of cash to pay a 2.6% dividend yield, which should continue to grow in coming years.

McDonald's
When the economy struggles, McDonald's (NYSE: MCD  ) does well; when the economy does well, McDonald's does well. Even when the country begins to worry about fat, carbs, or any other health factors, McDonald's seems to be able to adjust and grow. The company has one of the great global brands of our generation, something that doesn't come easily.

For investors, the company pays a solid 3.2% dividend and trades at just 15 times forward earnings. That's a value dividend investors should love.

Foolish bottom line
Focusing on dividends is one of the best ways to build long-term wealth. These five stocks have dividends that should be safe for years, if not decades to come.�

If you're interested in learning more about 3M, check out The Motley Fool's comprehensive new research report on the company. Find out whether 3M can continue its long history of invention and innovation to boost your portfolio. As a bonus, you'll receive a full year of key updates and guidance as company news develops, so don't miss out -- simply click here now to claim your copy today.

Monday, February 11, 2013

ECB Member Warns Against Trying to Weaken Euro

FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) -- A member of the European Central Bank's governing council has warned that any government attempts to push the euro lower could backfire.

Jens Weidmann said Monday in the text of a speech that "politically brought about devaluations" do not lead to improved economic competitiveness. He also said indicators suggest the euro is "not seriously overvalued."

The euro has strengthened recently, raising concern it will hurt exports from the 17 euro countries. French President Francois Hollande has suggested the eurozone needs to manage its exchange rate.

Weidmann sits on the ECB's 23-member rate setting council and heads Germany's Bundesbank national central bank.

ECB President Mario Draghi indicated the bank does not seek any particular exchange rate, which is set by markets, but is monitoring the stronger euro's effect on inflation.

Neil Woodford Sells Vodafone Group

LONDON --�Last week, City super-investor�Neil Woodford�sold his holdings of�Vodafone� (LSE: VOD  ) � (NASDAQ: VOD  ) �from the Invesco Perpetual High Income fund that he manages.

The move comes after�a turbulent few months for the telecommunications shares, having spent November and December wavering between 154 pence and 163 pence, but regaining some of their lost value throughout January and into February, settling at around 174 pence in recent days.

Mitchell Fraser-Jones, a director of Invesco Perpetual, commented:�

In terms of trading activity, the fund has now completed the sale of its holding in Vodafone.

The company has reduced its forecasts for revenue growth on the back of ongoing weakness in its core southern European markets and the cash flow cover of the dividend has fallen to what we view as uncomfortably low levels.

The company announced a share buy-back rather than the hoped for special dividend with its dividend from Verizon Wireless, while we also have reservations about the company's ability to maintain its margin on data revenues.

Woodford's move out of Vodafone is in contrast to many City analysts, who believe that the company's latest set of results were encouraging, despite the continued tough economic climate globally.

Famously, Woodford sold out of banks prior to the credit crisis, and -- similar to�Warren Buffett�-- resisted joining the dot-com bandwagon, avoiding the losses that crippled those unfortunate enough to have bought into the bubble at its peak. He's beaten the FTSE 100 by 200%-plus during the 15 years to October 2012 by identifying large-cap winners on a regular basis -- so is his "cashing out" call the right one regarding Vodafone?

The shares are currently on a prospective yield of around 5.8% -- that's hard to ignore. However, if you're looking for income outside of Vodafone, then you may wish to read�this exclusive, in-depth report�about another high-income opportunity within the FTSE 100.

The blue chip in question offers a 5.7% income,�might be worth 850 pence�versus around 690 pence now -- and has just been declared the "Motley Fool's Top Income Stock For 2013"! Just�click here�to download the report -- it's absolutely free.

What to Expect from TW Telecom

TW Telecom (Nasdaq: TWTC  ) is expected to report Q4 earnings on Feb. 12. Here's what Wall Street wants to see:

The 10-second takeaway
Comparing the upcoming quarter to the prior-year quarter, average analyst estimates predict TW Telecom's revenues will grow 7.0% and EPS will expand 36.4%.

The average estimate for revenue is $376.2 million. On the bottom line, the average EPS estimate is $0.15.

Revenue details
Last quarter, TW Telecom recorded revenue of $368.9 million. GAAP reported sales were 7.1% higher than the prior-year quarter's $344.5 million.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Dollar amounts in millions. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

EPS details
Last quarter, EPS came in at $0.14. GAAP EPS of $0.14 for Q3 were 40% higher than the prior-year quarter's $0.10 per share.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

Recent performance
For the preceding quarter, gross margin was 57.7%, 40 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was 15.9%, 220 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. Net margin was 5.7%, 150 basis points better than the prior-year quarter.

Looking ahead

The full year's average estimate for revenue is $1.47 billion. The average EPS estimate is $0.54.

Investor sentiment
The stock has a four-star rating (out of five) at Motley Fool CAPS, with 87 members out of 111 rating the stock outperform, and 24 members rating it underperform. Among 34 CAPS All-Star picks (recommendations by the highest-ranked CAPS members), 28 give TW Telecom a green thumbs-up, and six give it a red thumbs-down.

Of Wall Street recommendations tracked by S&P Capital IQ, the average opinion on TW Telecom is outperform, with an average price target of $26.84.

Looking for alternatives to TW Telecom? It takes more than great companies to build a fortune for the future. Learn the basic financial habits of millionaires next door and get focused stock ideas in our free report, "3 Stocks That Will Help You Retire Rich." Click here for instant access to this free report.

  • Add TW Telecom to My Watchlist.

Oceaneering International Earnings Are on Deck

Oceaneering International (NYSE: OII  ) is expected to report Q4 earnings on Feb. 13. Here's what Wall Street wants to see:

The 10-second takeaway
Comparing the upcoming quarter to the prior-year quarter, average analyst estimates predict Oceaneering International's revenues will grow 28.5% and EPS will expand 33.3%.

The average estimate for revenue is $738.0 million. On the bottom line, the average EPS estimate is $0.72.

Revenue details
Last quarter, Oceaneering International reported revenue of $734.2 million. GAAP reported sales were 22% higher than the prior-year quarter's $602.2 million.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Dollar amounts in millions. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

EPS details
Last quarter, EPS came in at $0.78. GAAP EPS of $0.78 for Q3 were 8.3% higher than the prior-year quarter's $0.72 per share.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

Recent performance
For the preceding quarter, gross margin was 23.3%, 210 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was 16.9%, 130 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. Net margin was 11.5%, 150 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter.

Looking ahead

The full year's average estimate for revenue is $2.74 billion. The average EPS estimate is $2.64.

Investor sentiment
The stock has a five-star rating (out of five) at Motley Fool CAPS, with 787 members out of 800 rating the stock outperform, and 13 members rating it underperform. Among 181 CAPS All-Star picks (recommendations by the highest-ranked CAPS members), 175 give Oceaneering International a green thumbs-up, and six give it a red thumbs-down.

Of Wall Street recommendations tracked by S&P Capital IQ, the average opinion on Oceaneering International is outperform, with an average price target of $61.53.

Is Oceaneering International the right energy stock for you? Read about a handful of timely, profit-producing plays on expensive crude in "3 Stocks for $100 Oil." Click here for instant access to this free report.

  • Add Oceaneering International to My Watchlist.

Sunday, February 10, 2013

BP’s Penalty Hits $36 Billion Since Spill; Transocean, Cameron Also Fall

The day after President Obama spoke in Louisiana about BP’s (BP) oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, BP stock is down $3.79, or 7%, at $48.36.

Since the explosion of the Deepwater Horizon drilling rig on April 20, the stock has fallen 20%, a total loss of market cap of $36 billion. Obama reiterated the government’s contention BP will be responsible for the total cleanup cost.

Dow Jones Newswires reports that BP has deployed executives to the U.S. in high-profile talk-show appearances to spin the news, even as the Financial Times reports the Coast Guard commandant at the scene warned yesterday the spill could rise to 100,000 barrels per day, far in excess of the current 5,000 per day estimate.

The Wall Street Journal’s Jeffrey Ball reports some are saying the spill could end up being bigger than the 1989 Exxon Mobil (XOM) spill in Alaska, although I’d note that Citigroup analyst Mark Fletcher on Friday argued that wasn’t such a big deal, given that Exxon wound up paying less than $1 billion in damages.

And in an interesting side note, Transocean’s (RIG) board of directors last year eliminated its executives’ bonuses, the Journal’s Rebecca Smith and Ben Casselman reported, citing the need to put incentives in place to encourage greater responsibility after 4 Transocean workers died on the job last year.

Transocean shares today are are down $3.17, or 4.4%, at $69.15.

Cameron International (CAM), makers of a blow-out preventer meant to act as a failsafe for the Transocean rig, is also down today, falling $1.26, or 3%, to $38.20.

Are Shorts Watching CLARCOR?

There's no foolproof way to know the future for CLARCOR (NYSE: CLC  ) or any other company. However, certain clues may help you see potential stumbles before they happen -- and before your stock craters as a result.

A cloudy crystal ball
In this series, we use accounts receivable and days sales outstanding to judge a company's current health and future prospects. It's an important step in separating the pretenders from the market's best stocks. Alone, AR -- the amount of money owed the company -- and DSO -- the number of days' worth of sales owed to the company -- don't tell you much. However, by considering the trends in AR and DSO, you can sometimes get a window onto the future.

Sometimes, problems with AR or DSO simply indicate a change in the business (like an acquisition), or lax collections. However, AR that grows more quickly than revenue, or ballooning DSO, can, at times, suggest a desperate company that's trying to boost sales by giving its customers overly generous payment terms. Alternately, it can indicate that the company sprinted to book a load of sales at the end of the quarter, like used-car dealers on the 29th of the month. (Sometimes, companies do both.)

Why might an upstanding firm like CLARCOR do this? For the same reason any other company might: to make the numbers. Investors don't like revenue shortfalls, and employees don't like reporting them to their superiors.

Is CLARCOR sending any potential warning signs? Take a look at the chart below, which plots revenue growth against AR growth, and DSO:

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. FQ = fiscal quarter.

The standard way to calculate DSO uses average accounts receivable. I prefer to look at end-of-quarter receivables, but I've plotted both above.

Watching the trends
When that red line (AR growth) crosses above the green line (revenue growth), I know I need to consult the filings. Similarly, a spike in the blue bars indicates a trend worth worrying about. CLARCOR's latest average DSO stands at 66.4 days, and the end-of-quarter figure is 66.6 days. Differences in business models can generate variations in DSO, and business needs can require occasional fluctuations, but all things being equal, I like to see this figure stay steady. So, let's get back to our original question: Based on DSO and sales, does CLARCOR look like it might miss its numbers in the next quarter or two?

The numbers don't paint a clear picture. For the last fully reported fiscal quarter, CLARCOR's year-over-year revenue shrank 4.8%, and its AR grew 3.8%. That looks OK. End-of-quarter DSO increased 1.2% over the prior-year quarter. It was down 1.3% versus the prior quarter. Still, I'm no fortuneteller, and these are just numbers. Investors putting their money on the line always need to dig into the filings for the root causes and draw their own conclusions.

Looking for alternatives to CLARCOR? It takes more than great companies to build a fortune for the future. Learn the basic financial habits of millionaires next door and get focused stock ideas in our free report, "3 Stocks That Will Help You Retire Rich." Click here for instant access to this free report.

  • Add CLARCOR to My Watchlist.

Will Johnson & Johnson Win Approval for Its Diabetes Drug?

In addition to its well-known personal-care products such as Listerine and Neutrogena,�Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ  ) boasts an impressive portfolio of market-leading therapeutic compounds. In fact, the health-care leader was one of the few to show growth last year in both worldwide pharmaceutical sales ($25 billion) and earnings ($3.86 per share). It finds itself in an enviable position heading into 2013 as one of the best-positioned companies to tackle the patent cliff head-on.

Even with that recent success, though, there's no time for J&J to rest on laurels in the highly competitive landscape of pharma and biotech. Even the industry's most successful drugs are under constant pressure from generics, which are either already on the market or timing their entrance for the moment exclusivity is lost. Fortunately for J&J, 2012 showed that several new drugs are already shaping up to be critical driving forces in the company's future. Today, we'll look at the Type 2 diabetes drug-hopeful Invokana.

The future of Type 2 diabetes treatment?
Invokana (canagliflozin) is a small molecule that inhibits the SGLT2 protein, which is responsible for transporting and retaining glucose in the kidney and thereby lowers glucose levels in diabetic patients. At the beginning of the year, an FDA advisory committee voted 10-to-5 in favor of approving the drug for patients with Type 2 diabetes, and final approval is expected by the end of the first quarter.

The same panel also voted 8-to-7 that it had concerns over the drug's long-term cardiovascular effects, but while the final vote will require additional safety data, it's unlikely that approval will be deraild. In fact, J&J has an ongoing trial evaluating long-term cardiovascular safety, which is expected to be completed in 2015. That should suffice for now.

The U.S. market is wide open
Approval would grant Invokana exclusive access to the U.S. market as the only approved SGLT2 inhibitor. Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY  ) and AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN  ) took a crack at the 26 million Americans with Type 2 diabetes last January with its SGLT2 inhibitor Forxiga (dapagliflozin), only to be denied approval over cancer risk concerns. Despite the setback, the drug was approved in the European Union in November.

The potential for J&J is enormous. Consider that Merck (NYSE: MRK  ) generated more than $5.75 billion in worldwide sales last year with its Type 2 diabetes blockbusters Januvia and Janumet. Better yet, the company maintains that the largest drivers for growth were the U.S. and Japanese markets. �

Oh, yeah -- Invokana also went head to head against Januvia in recent trials and won. That gives Johnson & Johnson an impressive track record in taking down market-leading drugs, considering that the company's immunology drug Stelara also recently crushed Enbrel in a head-to-head study. Both drugs are great news for the company, but they represent small pieces of the entire story. And there appears to be plenty for investors to like.

Johnson & Johnson is involved in everything from baby powder to biotech, and critics are convinced that the company is spread way too thin. If you want to know whether J&J is�nothing but a bloated corporate whale�-- or a well-diversified giant that's perfect for your portfolio -- check out the Fool's new premium report outlining the Johnson & Johnson story in terms that any investor can understand. Claim your copy, and a year of free analyst updates, by�clicking here now.

Why Rudolph Technologies Shares Slipped

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of Rudolph Technologies (NASDAQ: RTEC  ) fell as much as 11% after the software-maker missed estimates in its quarterly earnings report.

So what: Earnings per share of $0.17 were $0.02 short of the Street's expectations, while revenue of $54.3 million was off by about 5%. Sales were up 25% from a year ago, but down sequentially as full-year revenue increased by 17%. CEO Paul McLaughlin had nothing but positive remarks, saying, "We closed the year having delivered solid operating results and wins on a number of fronts," though he did acknowledge softness in capital spending in the industry. In December, Rudolph acquired Azores, which allowed it to strengthen its positioning in the advanced packaging market.

Now what: As a small company, Rudolph seems to be getting punished a little more for an earnings miss. Growth is still solid, the company outperformed the overall semiconductor industry, and its valuation is average at a P/E of 16. I'd say today's response was an overreaction.

Want more info on this company? Add Rudolph�Technologies to My Watchlist.

Could This Be Why Royal Dutch Shell Trades at Just 8.7 Times Profits?

LONDON -- These days you don't have to look far to spot lowly rated shares within the FTSE 100.

With a market value of �138 billion, Royal Dutch Shell� (LSE: RDSB  ) (NYSE: RDS-B  ) is the largest constituent of the blue-chip index. Yet its �22 shares trade at about 8.7 times the underlying earnings declared last week for 2012.

A number of reasons could explain the single-digit rating. Possibilities include the group's prospects for additional production, potential price swings within energy markets and the fact that earnings last year were less than that recorded during 2007.

Another reason could be Shell's capital expenditure. The company spends vast amounts every year on plant, property and equipment, and the sums are well in excess of the associated depreciation and amortization charged against reported earnings.

Here are the figures:

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Depreciation and amortization

12,563

13,082

12,654

12,735

11,714

14,615

Net capital expenditure

16,010

30,328

25,191

23,615

19,311

26,230

Source: S&P Capital IQ

You could argue Shell's report earnings are somewhat flattered by its depreciation policy.

In fact, I calculate net capital expenditure during the last six years has exceeded the reported depreciation charge by between 27% and 132%, and by an average of around 80%.

Indeed, more than $140 billion has been spent on plant, property on equipment between 2007 and 2012, of which more than $60 billion was not charged to the profit and loss account.

Of course, Shell's capital expenditure goes toward various long-term projects, so I accept the associated accounting costs are spread across the lifetime of the projects and are not expensed immediately.

But when you consider Shell's earnings were $5 per share during 2007 and were $4 a share last year, you do have to wonder about the benefits of that aforementioned $140 billion of expenditure.

Bear in mind, too, that Shell has indicated net capital expenditure will top $30 billion during each of 2013, 2014 and 2015. At some point, all this expenditure will have to propel the group's earnings higher.

Anyway, I'm a bit skeptical of Shell's reported earnings, and so it seems is the market, which is why I believe you can buy Shell's shares for less than 9 times the firm's accounting profits.

Still, those profits are funding an 114 pence per share dividend for 2013, which in turn supports a 5.2% yield. Not bad -- especially when the payout has just been lifted by nearly 5%.

However, Shell's prospects and valuation were not attractive enough to qualify the share for�this exclusive in-depth report, which is devoted instead to another high-income opportunity within the FTSE 100.

In fact, this alternative opportunity offers a 5.7% income,�might be worth 850p�versus around 700 pence now -- and has just been declared the "Motley Fool's Top Income Stock For 2013." Simply�click here�to download the report -- it's 100% free.

link

The Apple Empire Strikes Back

The following video is from Friday's Investor Beat, in which host Rex Moore, and analysts Jason Moser and James Early, dissect the hardest-hitting investing stories of the day.

Shortly after hedge fund manager David Einhorn blasted Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL  ) for sitting on its $137 billion cash stash, the Mac-maker responded. In this segment, our analysts discuss Apple's response.

There's no doubt that Apple is at the center of technology's largest revolution ever, and that longtime shareholders have been handsomely rewarded with over 1,000% gains. However, after its recent backslide, there is a debate raging as to whether Apple remains a buy. The Motley Fool's senior technology analyst and managing bureau chief, Eric Bleeker, is prepared to fill you in on both reasons to buy and reasons to sell Apple, and what opportunities are left for the company (and more importantly, your portfolio) going forward. To get instant access to his latest thinking on Apple, simply click here now.

The relevant segment can be found between 0:42 and 3:31.

What to Expect from Silicon Image

Silicon Image (Nasdaq: SIMG  ) is expected to report Q4 earnings on Feb. 5. Here's what Wall Street wants to see:

The 10-second takeaway
Comparing the upcoming quarter to the prior-year quarter, average analyst estimates predict Silicon Image's revenues will grow 1.3% and EPS will wane -50.0%.

The average estimate for revenue is $59.5 million. On the bottom line, the average EPS estimate is $0.03.

Revenue details
Last quarter, Silicon Image reported revenue of $73.9 million. GAAP reported sales were 24% higher than the prior-year quarter's $59.7 million.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Dollar amounts in millions. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

EPS details
Last quarter, non-GAAP EPS came in at $0.11. GAAP EPS shrank to zero from the prior-year quarter's $0.01.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

Recent performance
For the preceding quarter, gross margin was 58.3%, 50 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was 13.4%, 1,100 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. Net margin was -0.6%, 170 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter.

Looking ahead

The full year's average estimate for revenue is $253.3 million. The average EPS estimate is $0.18.

Investor sentiment
The stock has a three-star rating (out of five) at Motley Fool CAPS, with 689 members out of 723 rating the stock outperform, and 34 members rating it underperform. Among 132 CAPS All-Star picks (recommendations by the highest-ranked CAPS members), 123 give Silicon Image a green thumbs-up, and nine give it a red thumbs-down.

Of Wall Street recommendations tracked by S&P Capital IQ, the average opinion on Silicon Image is buy, with an average price target of $7.75.

Is Silicon Image the best semiconductor stock for you? You may be missing something obvious. Check out the semiconductor company that Motley Fool analysts expect to lead "The Next Trillion-dollar Revolution." Click here for instant access to this free report.

  • Add Silicon Image to My Watchlist.

Opinion: Ben Carson for President489 comments

Whether this weekend finds you blowing two feet of snow off the driveway or counting the hours until "Downton Abbey," make time to watch the video of Dr. Ben Carson speaking to the White House prayer breakfast this week.

Seated in view to his right are Senator Jeff Sessions and President Obama. One doesn't look happy. You know something's coming when Dr. Carson says, "It's not my intention to offend anyone. But it's hard not to. The PC police are out in force everywhere."

Dr. Carson tossed over the PC police years ago. Raised by a single mother in inner-city Detroit, he was as he tells it "a horrible student with a horrible temper." Today he's director of pediatric neurosurgery at Johns Hopkins and probably the most renowned specialist in his field.

Late in his talk he dropped two very un-PC ideas. The first is an unusual case for a flat tax: "What we need to do is come up with something simple. And when I pick up my Bible, you know what I see? I see the fairest individual in the universe, God, and he's given us a system. It's called a tithe.

"We don't necessarily have to do 10% but it's the principle. He didn't say if your crops fail, don't give me any tithe or if you have a bumper crop, give me triple tithe. So there must be something inherently fair about proportionality. You make $10 billion, you put in a billion. You make $10 you put in one. Of course you've got to get rid of the loopholes. Some people say, 'Well that's not fair because it doesn't hurt the guy who made $10 billion as much as the guy who made 10.' Where does it say you've got to hurt the guy? He just put a billion dollars in the pot. We don't need to hurt him. It's that kind of thinking that has resulted in 602 banks in the Cayman Islands. That money needs to be back here building our infrastructure and creating jobs."

Not surprisingly, a practicing physician has un-PC thoughts on health care:

"Here's my solution: When a person is born, give him a birth certificate, an electronic medical record, and a health savings account to which money can be contributed�pretax�from the time you're born 'til the time you die. If you die, you can pass it on to your family members, and there's nobody talking about death panels. We can make contributions for people who are indigent. Instead of sending all this money to some bureaucracy, let's put it in their HSAs. Now they have some control over their own health care. And very quickly they're going to learn how to be responsible."

The Johns Hopkins neurosurgeon may not be politically correct, but he's closer to correct than we've heard in years.

Infinera Beats Up on Analysts Yet Again

Infinera (Nasdaq: INFN  ) reported earnings on Feb. 5. Here are the numbers you need to know.

The 10-second takeaway
For the quarter ended Dec. 29 (Q4), Infinera met expectations on revenues and exceeded expectations on earnings per share.

Compared to the prior-year quarter, revenue grew and GAAP loss per share contracted.

Gross margins dropped, operating margins grew, net margins increased.

Revenue details
Infinera chalked up revenue of $128.1 million. The five analysts polled by S&P Capital IQ hoped for revenue of $127.4 million on the same basis. GAAP reported sales were 14% higher than the prior-year quarter's $112.0 million.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Dollar amounts in millions. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

EPS details
EPS came in at -$0.05. The eight earnings estimates compiled by S&P Capital IQ predicted -$0.06 per share. GAAP EPS were -$0.14 for Q4 versus -$0.19 per share for the prior-year quarter.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

Margin details
For the quarter, gross margin was 33.8%, 610 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was -12.1%, 490 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. Net margin was -12.6%, 470 basis points better than the prior-year quarter.

Looking ahead
Next quarter's average estimate for revenue is $119.4 million. On the bottom line, the average EPS estimate is -$0.07.

Next year's average estimate for revenue is $510.8 million. The average EPS estimate is -$0.11.

Investor sentiment
The stock has a five-star rating (out of five) at Motley Fool CAPS, with 1,818 members out of 1,852 rating the stock outperform, and 34 members rating it underperform. Among 551 CAPS All-Star picks (recommendations by the highest-ranked CAPS members), 544 give Infinera a green thumbs-up, and seven give it a red thumbs-down.

Of Wall Street recommendations tracked by S&P Capital IQ, the average opinion on Infinera is outperform, with an average price target of $6.35.

Internet software and services are being consumed in radically different ways, on increasingly mobile devices. Does Infinera fit in anymore? Check out the company that Motley Fool analysts expect to lead the pack in "The Next Trillion-dollar Revolution." Click here for instant access to this free report.

  • Add Infinera to My Watchlist.

Top Stocks To Buy For 2/10/2013-4

General Finance Corporation (NASDAQ:GFN) witnessed volume of 144,862 shares during last trade however it holds an average trading capacity of 5,050 shares. GFN last trade opened at $2.61 reached intraday low of $2.61 and went 27.82% up to close at $3.40.

GFN has a market capitalization $74.84 million and an enterprise value at $271.80 million. Trailing twelve months price to sales ratio of the stock was 0.43 while price to book ratio in most recent quarter was 0.68. In profitability ratios, net profit margin in past twelve months appeared at -6.00% whereas operating profit margin for the same period at 9.32%.

The company made a return on asset of 2.79% in past twelve months and return on equity of -5.30% for similar period. In the period of trailing 12 months it generated revenue amounted to $175.14 million gaining $8.35 revenue per share. Its year over year, quarterly growth of revenue was 12.60%.

The total of $196.96 million debt was there putting a total debt to equity ratio 155.93. Moreover its current ratio according to same quarter results was 1.32 and book value per share was 4.99.

Looking at the trading information, the stock price history displayed that its S&P500 52 Week Change illustrated -0.74% where the stock current price exhibited up beat from its 50 day moving average price of $2.91 and remained above from its 200 Day Moving Average price of $3.03.

GFN holds 22.01 million outstanding shares with 11.14 million floating shares where insider possessed 52.36% and institutions kept 32.10%.