Saturday, March 9, 2013

Are You Expecting This from Pepsico?

Pepsico (NYSE: PEP  ) is expected to report Q4 earnings on Feb. 14. Here's what Wall Street wants to see:

The 10-second takeaway
Comparing the upcoming quarter to the prior-year quarter, average analyst estimates predict Pepsico's revenues will contract -2.3% and EPS will contract -7.8%.

The average estimate for revenue is $19.70 billion. On the bottom line, the average EPS estimate is $1.06.

Revenue details
Last quarter, Pepsico logged revenue of $16.65 billion. GAAP reported sales were 5.3% lower than the prior-year quarter's $17.58 billion.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Dollar amounts in millions. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

EPS details
Last quarter, non-GAAP EPS came in at $1.20. GAAP EPS of $1.21 for Q3 were 3.2% lower than the prior-year quarter's $1.25 per share.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

Recent performance
For the preceding quarter, gross margin was 53.0%, 110 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was 17.3%, 50 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. Net margin was 11.4%, about the same as the prior-year quarter.

Looking ahead

The full year's average estimate for revenue is $65.31 billion. The average EPS estimate is $4.07.

Investor sentiment
The stock has a four-star rating (out of five) at Motley Fool CAPS, with 4,400 members out of 4,555 rating the stock outperform, and 155 members rating it underperform. Among 1,232 CAPS All-Star picks (recommendations by the highest-ranked CAPS members), 1,200 give Pepsico a green thumbs-up, and 32 give it a red thumbs-down.

Of Wall Street recommendations tracked by S&P Capital IQ, the average opinion on Pepsico is outperform, with an average price target of $74.91.

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Why Fortinet Shares Skyrocketed

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of Fortinet (NASDAQ: FTNT  ) have skyrocketed today by as much as 25% after the network security specialist reported fourth-quarter earnings.

So what: Revenue during the quarter totaled $151.2 million, a 25% gain from a year ago. Non-GAAP earnings per share came in at $0.17. Both revenue and adjusted earnings results topped analyst forecasts, which would have been happy with $144.3 million in sales and a profit of $0.15 per share.

Now what: Topping off the figures, Fortinet also issued strong guidance for the upcoming year, predicting revenue in the range of $625 million to $635 million. That was ahead of Street forecasts of just $618.9 million. Nomura Securities has boosted its estimates on shares, increasing its price target from $24 to $26 on the strong outlook and expectation that growth will be sustainable.

Interested in more info on Fortinet? Add it to your watchlist by clicking here.

2013 and beyond
The Motley Fool's chief investment officer has selected his No. 1 stock for the next year. Find out which stock it is in our brand-new free report: "The Motley Fool's Top Stock for 2013." I invite you to take a copy, free for a limited time. Just click here to access the report and find out the name of this under-the-radar company.

Why Netgear Shares Got Disconnected

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of Netgear (NASDAQ: NTGR  ) are off by about 10% this afternoon after two negative reports sent traders scurrying for the exits. The most critical of these reports was one released this morning that claimed that bugs in today's networking technology open millions of users to hacker strikes.

So what: According to a white paper released by security software maker Rapid7, up to 50 million networking devices running the universal plug and play -- or UPnP -- standard could be vulnerable. Netgear is the public company most focused on making these devices, but Cisco's (NASDAQ: CSCO  ) Linksys division was also singled out, as was privately held Belkin and Taiwan's D-Link. The flaws could allow hackers access to files and passwords, or could even lead to a complete hijacking of any connected device, which includes webcams, printers, and security systems as well as PCs. H.D. Moore, Rapid7's chief technology officer, called it "the most pervasive bug I've ever seen."

As more and more devices are hooked up to the Internet, the networking gear that makes it work has become more critical, but has not been made particularly secure. The catch-22 of this situation is that hackers had not made much use of UPnP bugs to date, but now that this information is publicized, they're more likely to investigate and take advantage of the security flaws.

Now what: Software patches are possible, but they may take time. However, this does not seem like a situation that justifies its current panic, and Netgear is currently trading at a reasonable 15.3 P/E. Consumers aren't likely to run screaming into the night, and a proper response would do much to reassure the market that Netgear is going to stay on top of the problem. Hopefully that response will come soon.

Want more news and updates? Add Netgear to your Watchlist now.

Once a high-flying tech darling, Cisco is now on the radar of value-oriented dividend lovers. Get the low down on the routing juggernaut in The Motley Fool's�premium report. Our report also has you covered with a full year of free analyst updates to keep you informed as its story changes, so click here now to read more.

General Motors: The New Hip Automaker?

In the past, no one would have confused General Motors for a hip automaker, but now the company is making a big bet on technology to increase its "coolness" factor. GM recently announced plans to team up with AT&T to add 4G LTE connectivity into most models available in 2014.

What does this mean for consumers? Come 2014, you'll be able to do things like stream a Netflix movie in the back seat, pull real-time traffic information directly to navigation systems, and use mobile devices through the vehicle's Wi-Fi hotspots.�

In the following video, analyst Brendan Byrnes further breaks down what these features mean for consumers, and how GM investors should view this move.

A transcript follows the video.

Taking a big-picture look, it's true that decades of mismanagement of General Motors led to a painful bankruptcy in 2009, but�it emerged a leaner, stronger company. GM's turnaround, however, is still a work in progress. Investors around the world are wondering if GM has what it takes to reclaim its former glory. John Rosevear has put together a brand-new premium research report telling you what you need to know about GM and its turnaround. If you own or are thinking about buying shares of GM, then you don't want to miss this report. Click here now to get started.

Andrew Tonner: Hi, Fools. Andrew Tonner here. I'm joined today by our Motley Fool analyst Brendan Byrnes.

Brendan, one of the emerging trends you've seen driving the auto market is increased integration of technology. We saw an example of that with GM teaming up with AT&T. When you look at this deal, what strikes you?

Brendan Byrnes: I think GM is really doing a good job trying to get out ahead of the curve here. They're going to put 4G connectivity in most of their cars, they say by 2014. What you'll be able to do is stream videos in the back seat, have hot spots to connect different mobile devices within the car.

I think this is definitely a good idea for GM overall, especially when you look toward a younger generation of buyers coming up. Ford, of course, has teamed up with Microsoft with their SYNC system.

I like GM's strategy better here -- 4G connectivity obviously is the future, about 10 times as fast as 3G, and they give you the option to team up multiple devices in these cars. As I mentioned, younger buyers are a key.

We know fewer younger people are buying cars nowadays. Even fewer younger people are getting their licenses nowadays.

GM, of course, is not traditionally viewed as necessarily the most hip of all automakers. Maybe they can come back in and be more attractive to these younger buyers that are going to be their core customers as they work their way up into their 30s, 40s, and 50s. I definitely think it's a good idea from that.

Obviously, just getting more and more technology into cars makes them more attractive overall, but I like GM's strategy here a little bit better than Ford.

When we're talking about these stocks overall, a little run-up over the past six months -- actually over the past month they've come down just a slight bit -- I do still think these are long-term, solid investments for your portfolio.

They remain trading, both of them, under 10 times earnings, both the big domestic automakers. That's the main reason I like them better than the Japanese players -- Honda, Toyota, Nissan -- just because they're a little bit cheaper.

Overall, I like what GM's doing here and, again, I think for a long-term investor it's definitely an attractive stock.�

Opinion: Ben Carson for President

Whether this weekend finds you blowing two feet of snow off the driveway or counting the hours until "Downton Abbey," make time to watch the video of Dr. Ben Carson speaking to the White House prayer breakfast this week.

Seated in view to his right are Senator Jeff Sessions and President Obama. One doesn't look happy. You know something's coming when Dr. Carson says, "It's not my intention to offend anyone. But it's hard not to. The PC police are out in force everywhere."

Dr. Carson tossed over the PC police years ago. Raised by a single mother in inner-city Detroit, he was as he tells it "a horrible student with a horrible temper." Today he's director of pediatric neurosurgery at Johns Hopkins and probably the most renowned specialist in his field.

Late in his talk he dropped two very un-PC ideas. The first is an unusual case for a flat tax: "What we need to do is come up with something simple. And when I pick up my Bible, you know what I see? I see the fairest individual in the universe, God, and he's given us a system. It's called a tithe.

"We don't necessarily have to do 10% but it's the principle. He didn't say if your crops fail, don't give me any tithe or if you have a bumper crop, give me triple tithe. So there must be something inherently fair about proportionality. You make $10 billion, you put in a billion. You make $10 you put in one. Of course you've got to get rid of the loopholes. Some people say, 'Well that's not fair because it doesn't hurt the guy who made $10 billion as much as the guy who made 10.' Where does it say you've got to hurt the guy? He just put a billion dollars in the pot. We don't need to hurt him. It's that kind of thinking that has resulted in 602 banks in the Cayman Islands. That money needs to be back here building our infrastructure and creating jobs."

Not surprisingly, a practicing physician has un-PC thoughts on health care:

"Here's my solution: When a person is born, give him a birth certificate, an electronic medical record, and a health savings account to which money can be contributed�pretax�from the time you're born 'til the time you die. If you die, you can pass it on to your family members, and there's nobody talking about death panels. We can make contributions for people who are indigent. Instead of sending all this money to some bureaucracy, let's put it in their HSAs. Now they have some control over their own health care. And very quickly they're going to learn how to be responsible."

The Johns Hopkins neurosurgeon may not be politically correct, but he's closer to correct than we've heard in years.

Asia stocks climb as Bernanke reassures

SYDNEY (MarketWatch) � Asia stocks climbed Thursday, the last day of the month, with investors keying into comments from the head of the U.S. Federal Reserve emphasizing an ongoing commitment to monetary stimulus.

Hong Kong�s Hang Seng Index HK:HSI �advanced 0.9%, while the Shanghai Composite Index CN:000001 �climbed 0.4%.

Japan�s Nikkei Stock Average JP:100000018 �rose 2%, South Korea�s Kospi KR:SEU �advanced 1.1%, and Australia�s S&P/ASX 200 index AU:XJO �moved up 0.7%.

On the last day of the month, Japan, Korea and Australia were showing February gains of more than 2.9% each, but Chinese markets lagged, with Hong Kong the worst performer � down 4.1%.

Reuters

Asia�s advance on Thursday came after U.S. stocks ended with sharp gains Wednesday, helped by upbeat data on the housing market.

Additionally, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke�s second day of testimony further reassured markets that the Fed�s bond-buying program wouldn�t decline by much anytime soon. Read: U.S. stocks surge in best day since Jan. 2

Markets �know global central banks are on their side,� said Barclays Capital strategist Jose Wynne. �Bernanke�s testimony ... suggests the doves are in charge at the Fed.�

Hong Kong-listed banks traded broadly higher, with HSBC Holdings PLC HK:5 �HBC up 2.2%, Bank of Communications Co. HK:3328 �BCMXY rising 1.7%, and Bank of China Ltd. HK:3988 �BACHY �improving by 1.4%.

Property firms, meanwhile, were among the biggest percentage gainers in Hong Kong, with New World Development Co. HK:17 �rallying 3.6% and Sino Land Ltd. HK:83 �higher by 2.8%.

Property firms were also climbing notably on the Chinese mainland, with China Vanke Co. CVKEY �CN:200002 �up 2.4% in Shenzhen, while Gemdale Corp. CN:600383 � rose 1.4% in Shanghai, as did Poly Real Estate Group Co. CN:600048 �.

Deutsche Bank property analyst Tony Tsang said Wednesday�s budget set out by the Hong Kong government contained a commitment to increase the supply of land in Hong Kong, including land reclamation outside Victoria Harbor and opening up new development areas.

Meanwhile, Wynne at Barclays Capital said the Bank of Japan �is likely to meet the market�s high expectations [on policy easing] soon,� with Wynne�s comments coming just before the government formally nominated Haruhiko Kuroda, a monetary dove, as the new central-bank governor Thursday morning. Kuroda�s appointment had been expected.

Efforts by the Japanese government to talk down the yen have seen the dollar gain 6.5% against the Japanese currency since the start of the year.

Japan�s key exporters have seen their share prices improve broadly in tandem with yen weakness, and with the dollar USDJPY �at �92.47 Thursday, just up from �92.34 in late North American trading Wednesday, the gains continued apace Thursday.

Advantest Corp. JP:6857 � ATE �climbed 3.1%, Toshiba Corp. JP:6502 � TOSYY �rose 4.7%, and Tokyo Electron Ltd. JP:8035 � TOELY �gained 2.4%.

Among the auto makers, Toyota Motor Corp. JP:7203 TM added 2.3%. Honda Motor Co. JP:7267 HMC rose 3.2%, and Nissan Motor Co. JP:7201 NSANY advanced 2.2%.

Click to Play AIA seeks to tap Asia's middle class

Coming off a highly profitable 2012, life insurer AIA says it is committed to growing in Asia.

All three firms managed to increase production in China during January for the first time since last year�s flare-up of a territorial dispute between Beijing and Tokyo, the Nikkei business daily reported.

Machinery firm Komatsu Ltd. JP:6301 �KMTUY �rose 4.9% after the Nikkei reported separately that the firm is expected to post an operating profit of more than �300 billion ($3.25 billion) in the fiscal year ending March 2014, with a slide in the yen forecast to lift earnings.

In Australia, energy firms and banks were helping the market to gain, with Woodside Petroleum Ltd. AU:WPL � WOPEF �up 2.2% and banking giant Commonwealth Bank of Australia AU:CBA � CBAUF �higher by 1.6%.

Asset manager Perpetual Ltd. AU:PPT �gained 4.6% after posting a 19% increase in first-half net profit, while retailer Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd. AU:HVN �climbed 5.3% after the firm posted a 36% drop in first-half net profit but said it�s seen an uptick in recent sales.

Technology companies were moving higher in South Korean trading, with Samsung Electronics Co. KR:005930 � SSNLF �up 1.6% and rival chip maker SK Hynix Inc. KR:000660 �HXSCL �higher by 1.7%.

Friday, March 8, 2013

Confirmed: Big Banks Are "Too Big to Jail"

On the back of another Dow (DJINDICES: ^DJI  ) record yesterday, stocks opened slightly higher this morning, with the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC  ) and the narrower, price-weighted Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI  ) up 0.11% and 0.32%, respectively, as of 10:10 a.m. EST.

You can't touch this
In an astonishing admission, the nation's top law-enforcement officer, U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder told members of Congress that size has a dissuasive effect when it comes to prosecuting large financial institutions due to concerns about the potential ripple effect on the economy, stating: "That is a function of the fact that some of these institutions have become too large. ... [The size of large banks] has an inhibiting influence -- impact on our ability to bring resolutions that I think would be more appropriate."

It appears that "too big to fail" has brought about the equally undesirable "too big to jail." Mind you, that didn't stop federal prosecutors in New York from bringing a billion-dollar civil suit against Bank of America (NYSE: BAC  ) last October for allegedly defrauding government mortgage agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac through activities in its Countrywide Financial unit.

The consequences of "too big to fail" are apparent outside the U.S., too. Yesterday, in testimony to the Commission on Banking Standards, the outgoing governor of the Bank of England, Sir Mervyn King, recommended that nationalized lender Royal Bank of Scotland (NYSE: RBS  ) be broken up, reasoning that "at present RBS is a portfolio of different activities that doesn't sit well enough together to make the market want to bid for it."

Last month, when appearing before Congress for his semiannual monetary policy report, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke clashed with freshman Senator Elizabeth Warren on this topic, suggesting that the implicit subsidy big banks receive through lower funding costs is a case of the market getting it wrong and that these institutions would be allowed to fail. Either Mr. Bernanke is bluffing or he is in denial. Mr. Holder's admission has provided a new political impetus for the breakup of big banks -- this is no bad thing.

Bank of America's stock doubled in 2012. Is there more yet to come? With significant challenges still ahead, it's critical to have a solid understanding of this megabank before adding it to your portfolio. In The Motley Fool's premium research report on B of A, analyst Anand Chokkavelu, CFA, and Financials bureau chief Matt Koppenheffer lift the veil on the bank's operations, including three reasons to buy and three reasons to sell. Click here now to claim your copy.

Top Stocks To Buy For 2/6/2013-3

Schlumberger Limited. NYSE:SLB surged 1.09%, closed at $82.43 and its overall trading volume was 8.06 million shares during the last session. The price to earning ratio reached $25.08 while 5 years net income growth rate remained 25.49.


Occidental Petroleum Corporation NYSE:OXY gained 0.90%, closed at $93.88 and its overall trading volume was 5.89 million shares during the last session. The price to earning ratio reached $17.87 while 5 years net income growth rate remained 3.97.

National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. NYSE:NOV advanced 2.12%, closed at $63.99 and its overall trading volume was 5.71 million shares during the last session. The price to earning ratio reached $16.55 while 5 years net income growth rate remained 66.38.

Transocean LTD NYSE:RIG increased 0.33%, closed at $72.47 and its overall trading volume was 5.47 million shares during the last session. The price to earning ratio reached $9.42 while 5 years net income growth rate remained 83.46.

ENSCO PLC NYSE:ESV surged 3.14%, closed at $51.63 and its overall trading volume was 2.39 million shares during the last session. The price to earning ratio reached $12.35 while 5 years net income growth rate remained 52.55.

 

Thor Industries Misses Where it Counts

Thor Industries (NYSE: THO  ) reported earnings on March 7. Here are the numbers you need to know.

The 10-second takeaway
For the quarter ended Jan. 31 (Q2), Thor Industries met expectations on revenues and missed estimates on earnings per share.

Compared to the prior-year quarter, revenue grew significantly. GAAP earnings per share grew significantly.

Gross margins were steady, operating margins dropped, net margins grew.

Revenue details
Thor Industries recorded revenue of $741.6 million. The four analysts polled by S&P Capital IQ expected revenue of $741.4 million on the same basis. GAAP reported sales were 24% higher than the prior-year quarter's $597.0 million.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Dollar amounts in millions. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

EPS details
EPS came in at $0.37. The four earnings estimates compiled by S&P Capital IQ forecast $0.38 per share. GAAP EPS of $0.37 for Q2 were 48% higher than the prior-year quarter's $0.25 per share.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

Margin details
For the quarter, gross margin was 9.9%, much about the same as the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was 3.3%, 10 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. Net margin was 2.7%, 40 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. (Margins calculated in GAAP terms.)

Looking ahead
Next quarter's average estimate for revenue is $1.05 billion. On the bottom line, the average EPS estimate is $0.93.

Next year's average estimate for revenue is $3.66 billion. The average EPS estimate is $2.88.

Investor sentiment
The stock has a three-star rating (out of five) at Motley Fool CAPS, with 209 members out of 243 rating the stock outperform, and 34 members rating it underperform. Among 75 CAPS All-Star picks (recommendations by the highest-ranked CAPS members), 71 give Thor Industries a green thumbs-up, and four give it a red thumbs-down.

Of Wall Street recommendations tracked by S&P Capital IQ, the average opinion on Thor Industries is buy, with an average price target of $49.75.

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  • Add Thor Industries to My Watchlist.

Why Retail Sales Rose Last Month

In this video, Chris Nials talks to Jill Ralph about�the recent revelations from the BRC that retail sales grew at their fastest pace in two years, and take a look at the performance of�Debenhams� (LSE: DEB  ) followings its first-half figures, while they await�Marks &�Spencer's results as well...

Here at The Motley Fool, we believe one FTSE 100 share in particular has�re-envisioned itself to allow for tremendous growth�along new horizons. To find out the name of the growth share, simply�click here�to have the in-depth report delivered to your inbox, completely free.

Kroger Crushes Earnings Estimates

Kroger (NYSE: KR  ) reported earnings on March 7. Here are the numbers you need to know.

The 10-second takeaway
For the quarter ended Feb. 2 (Q4), Kroger met expectations on revenues and crushed expectations on earnings per share.

Compared to the prior-year quarter, revenue grew. GAAP earnings per share grew.

Gross margins dropped, operating margins increased, net margins expanded.

Revenue details
Kroger logged revenue of $24.15 billion. The 17 analysts polled by S&P Capital IQ predicted sales of $24.00 billion on the same basis. GAAP reported sales were 13% higher than the prior-year quarter's $21.41 billion.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Dollar amounts in millions. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

EPS details
EPS came in at $0.88. The 22 earnings estimates compiled by S&P Capital IQ forecast $0.69 per share. GAAP EPS were $0.88 for Q4 versus -$0.54 per share for the prior-year quarter.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

Margin details
For the quarter, gross margin was 20.9%, 240 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was 3.4%, 80 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. Net margin was 1.9%, 330 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. (Margins calculated in GAAP terms.)

Looking ahead
Next quarter's average estimate for revenue is $30.09 billion. On the bottom line, the average EPS estimate is $0.87.

Next year's average estimate for revenue is $99.79 billion. The average EPS estimate is $2.69.

Investor sentiment
The stock has a three-star rating (out of five) at Motley Fool CAPS, with 618 members out of 690 rating the stock outperform, and 72 members rating it underperform. Among 195 CAPS All-Star picks (recommendations by the highest-ranked CAPS members), 185 give Kroger a green thumbs-up, and 10 give it a red thumbs-down.

Of Wall Street recommendations tracked by S&P Capital IQ, the average opinion on Kroger is outperform, with an average price target of $28.11.

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  • Add Kroger to My Watchlist.

Google Readies Its Amazon Prime Killer

In an all-out effort to keep shoppers dialed into the Google (NASDAQ: GOOG  ) ecosystem, the company has reportedly been readying a same-day shipping service aimed at directly competing against Amazon's (NASDAQ: AMZN  ) Prime shipping service. Dubbed "Google Express Checkout," the service is expected to cost $10 to $15 less than the $79 annual fee Amazon charges for its Prime service, but will offer same-day deliveries from the likes of Target, Wal-Mart, Walgreens, and even Safeway. On the surface, the motivation appears that Google wants a bigger piece of the e-commerce pie, but deeper down this is likely part of a larger effort to collect more data about its users.

Unlocking Android
Although Android enjoys a 70.1% worldwide market share, it controls the minority of the industry's profits. The abundance of sub-$250 Android-powered smartphones has attracted a more frugal class of smartphone users compared to Apple iEnthusiasts. As a result, Google has been working on ways to extract more value out of its Android user base, which naturally means improving the effectiveness of its mobile advertising platform. A same-day delivery service would allow Google to collect a combination of online and offline data about user shopping behavior. Over time, this valuable data should allow Google to increase the relevancy of its mobile ads, which ultimately should translate into increased mobile ad spending.

From search giant to e-commerce king?
Google is in a potentially unique position to capitalize on e-commerce growth, since shopping-related searches often start on a search engine. However, Google has to deal the challenge of breaking the association among users that online shopping typically ends away from Google's domain. If successful, Google has a seemingly large pool of users that it can prospect for new data.

At this time, it isn't known if this same-day delivery service will be the first nationwide rollout among major competitors. eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY  ) has been trialing a same-day delivery network in New York and San Francisco, which relies on excess delivery capacity within those cities. eBay CEO John Donahoe has coined it "the Uber of deliver networks," which presents eBay with a massive retail opportunity.

What will Amazon do?
To combat the same-day delivery threat, Amazon plans on growing its warehouse network to reduce its two-day shipping time down to one day for most areas. In larger urban areas, the company believes it will be possible to offer same-day delivery. However, CEO Jeff Bezos has gone on record saying he doesn't see how a nationwide same-day delivery service would be economical. Should Google or eBay show success with their same-day delivery platforms, you better believe Amazon will find a way to make it happen.

As one of the most dominant Internet companies ever, Google has made a habit of driving strong returns for its shareholders. However, like many other web companies, it's also struggling to adapt to an increasingly mobile world. Despite gaining an enviable lead with its Android operating system, the market isn't sold. That's why it's more important than ever to understand each piece of Google's sprawling empire. In The Motley Fool's new premium research report on Google, we break down the risks and potential rewards for Google investors. Simply click here now to unlock your copy of this invaluable resource.

BRF - Brasil Foods Earnings Up Next

BRF - Brasil Foods (NYSE: BRFS  ) is expected to report Q4 earnings on March 4. Here's what Wall Street wants to see:

The 10-second takeaway
Comparing the upcoming quarter to the prior-year quarter, average analyst estimates predict BRF - Brasil Foods's revenues will grow 1.9% and EPS will decrease -9.5%.

The average estimate for revenue is $3.88 billion. On the bottom line, the average EPS estimate is $0.19.

Revenue details
Last quarter, BRF - Brasil Foods reported revenue of $3.54 billion. GAAP reported sales were 4.4% higher than the prior-year quarter's $3.39 billion.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Dollar amounts in millions. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

EPS details
Last quarter, EPS came in at $0.05. GAAP EPS of $0.05 for Q3 were 78% lower than the prior-year quarter's $0.23 per share.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

Recent performance
For the preceding quarter, gross margin was 21.2%, 430 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was 3.2%, 400 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. Net margin was 1.3%, 450 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter.

Looking ahead

The full year's average estimate for revenue is $13.76 billion. The average EPS estimate is $0.36.

Investor sentiment
The stock has a three-star rating (out of five) at Motley Fool CAPS, with 223 members out of 238 rating the stock outperform, and 15 members rating it underperform. Among 61 CAPS All-Star picks (recommendations by the highest-ranked CAPS members), 56 give BRF - Brasil Foods a green thumbs-up, and five give it a red thumbs-down.

Of Wall Street recommendations tracked by S&P Capital IQ, the average opinion on BRF - Brasil Foods is outperform, with an average price target of $19.33.

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Duke Energy Earnings: An Early Look

Earnings season is in full swing, with huge numbers of companies having already given their latest numbers to investors. The key to making smart investment decisions with stocks releasing their quarter reports is to anticipate how they'll do before they announce results, leaving you fully prepared to respond quickly to whatever inevitable surprises arise. That way, you'll be less likely to make an uninformed knee-jerk reaction to news that turns out to be exactly the wrong move.

Let's turn to Duke Energy (NYSE: DUK  ) . The utility giant has been digesting its massive merger with Progress Energy while at the same time dealing with the massive disruptions in the coal and natural gas markets that have changed the way utilities generate electricity. Let's take an early look at what's been happening with Duke Energy over the past quarter and what we're likely to see in its quarterly report on Wednesday.

Stats on Duke Energy

Analyst EPS Estimate

$0.64

Change From Year-Ago EPS

(11%)

Revenue Estimate

$5.55 billion

Change From Year-Ago Revenue

65%

Earnings Beats in Past 4 Quarters

4

Source: Yahoo! Finance.

Will Duke Energy electrify its stock?
Analysts have reined in their earnings estimates for Duke Energy modestly in the past two months, cutting earnings-per-share guesses by $0.03. But that hasn't made investors less optimistic, as the stock has climbed nearly 12% since early November.

More than anything else, cheap natural gas has transformed the utility industry lately. Duke recently announced that it would retire two of its coal plants as part of a larger move toward natural gas, and rival Southern (NYSE: SO  ) could find it cheaper simply to close down its coal-fired plants rather than implement the required pollution controls to meet EPA guidelines. Cheap gas may also have helped Duke in its decision to retire a Florida nuclear plant, as nuclear power giant Exelon (NYSE: EXC  ) has seen pressure in its stock for quite a while due to concerns about nuclear power following the Fukushima Daiichi incident in Japan two years ago.

Interestingly, though, nat gas gluts haven't stemmed the trend toward renewable energy development. Duke, Exelon, and NRG Energy (NYSE: NRG  ) have all boosted their presence in the renewables space, with Duke focusing on two wind-farm projects in Texas. Even though NRG is the largest solar developer in the country, Duke has stayed in the solar business as well, with its recently finished solar farms in North Carolina expected to supply customers throughout the eastern part of the state.

The big question that investors should look for Duke to answer is how the utility expects to deal with the impact of energy-efficiency programs and consequent reductions in electricity use. To succeed, Duke needs to concentrate on keeping margins as high as possible, and switching to the most cost-efficient generation fuel will likely be a key component in Duke's strategy going forward.

Can Exelon beat out Duke Energy?
As the nation moves increasingly toward clean energy, Duke Energy and Exelon are fighting for supremacy in the growing space. In our premium report on Exelon, we look at whether Exelon is the best fit among utilities for your portfolio. Check out our report right now; click here now�for instant access.

Click here to add Duke Energy to My Watchlist, which can find all of our Foolish analysis on it and all your other stocks.

Why Tuesday Morning Shares Tumbled

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of closeout retailer Tuesday Morning (NASDAQ: TUES  ) were falling sharply today, down as much as 19% after its CEO suddenly resigned.

So what: The discount houseware specialist said that CEO Brady Churches was stepping down after just six months on the job. He will be replaced by Michael Rouleau as interim CEO. Tuesday Morning didn't provide a reason for Churches' departure but said he will remain with the company in a "consultative capacity." There was no specific reason provided for the change, but Churches said "the transition was in the company's best interest."

Now what: Churches, a former executive at Big Lots, had come on to replace Kathleen Mason, who was fired and subsequently sued the company on charges of discrimination. Two leadership changes in six months certainly don't bode well for the company's stability, and its financial performance has been headed in the wrong direction as well. In its last fiscal year, ended in August, it earned just $0.22 a share, down from $0.09 a year ago, and took a $41.8 million inventory charge in its most recent quarter. All signs seem here to say "stay away."

Don't miss the next update on Tuesday Morning. Add the company to your Watchlist by clicking here.

EBIX Plunges 23%: Gotham Alleges Unreliable Accounting, ‘Sham’ Tax Handling

Shares of insurance software vendor Ebix (EBIX), formerly Delphi Information Systems, are down $4.32, or 23%, at $14.75, following a negative 46-page report this morning, posted online, by Gotham City Research LLC that claims that the company’s “accounting is Unreliable, Inaccurate, and Incomplete,” its “tax strategy is a sham,” and its stock “deserves to be Halted” until there’s clarity on its Securities & Exchange Commission filings.

Gotham posted the gist of their report on Seeking Alpha today, which of which the key summary is,

We read over 10,000 pages of documents from Sweden, Singapore, India, Australia, New Zealand, & the United States pertaining to the company. We consulted with professionals from the disciplines of forensic accounting, law, transfer pricing, background investigations, finance, and software. We found assets not adding, cash disappearing, and management misrepresenting. The more we looked, the more we found reality to be far worse than the prior critics had made it out to be. For example, we discovered a $66 million undisclosed related party loan1, $67 million accounting irregularity in long-lived assets, and Australian revenues at a fraction of what the SEC filings disclosed, per the Australian filings. We concluded that (i) Ebix’s financial statements are unreliable, inaccurate, and incomplete, (ii) their tax strategy does not appear sound, and (iii) the stock should be halted.

My colleague Bill Alpert wrote in Barron’s magazine print edition about Ebix way back in July of 2011 regarding the company’s suspiciously low tax rate as a result of its subsidiaries in Singapore and India:

The tax-savings from Ebix’s intracompany transactions with its subsidiaries in Singapore and India have been crucial to the cash flow and profit that Raina’s produced at the U.S. parent. There are many U.S. multinational firms that have been criticized for their use of international tactics to reduce their taxes�companies such as General Electric (GE) and this weekly’s publisher, News Corp. (NWSA). Still, Ebix merits attention. The solidly profitable software outfit’s effective tax rate in 2009 was 2.5%. In 2010 it was 1.1%.

Top Stocks For 3/8/2013-4

Kore Nutrition Incorporated (OTCBB:KORE.ob) and the Company’s wholly owned subsidiary, Go All In, Inc. (“ALL IN”), are pleased to announce the appointment of a unique and experienced Advisory Board to facilitate rapid expansion of the ALL IN Energy brand of products. The Advisory Board will be chaired by Phil Atwell, owner of Geronimo Film Productions Inc., which has been responsible for the development of music videos for 50 Cent, Dr. Dre, Eminem and Marilyn Manson, as well as commercial campaigns for Coors Light.

ALL IN President and CEO, David Powley, stated that, “We are overwhelmed with the caliber and talent of all of our dedicated and professional Advisors and, as All In Energy products cater initially to the Professional Poker Society, we are very fortunate that Phil Atwell has agreed to Chair this Advisory Board with his substantial experience in the entertainment world.”

Powley continued, “This is the platform that will help Go All In Inc. express to, and impress upon, the vast consumer audience that our products are not just another brand of energy mixers for the juvenile jet set; we offer healthy energy (thus the term “healthergy”) based products which will help all demographics everyday.”

The ALL IN Advisory Board will play an integral, daily role in the growth of the Company. Bringing with them an extensive level of experience across a diverse range of fields, the Advisory Board will be called upon for their objective, professional advice as it pertains to the development, distribution, and management of the Company’s flourishing line of energy drinks, purified water, and new products under development.

EQ Labs (Pink Sheets:EQLB) began a national advertising campaign with a 5 minute spot on ABC affiliate KTNV (Channel 13) in Las Vegas. Chief Executive Officer, Maurice Owens, was featured on “The Morning Blend” show talking about the virtues of EQ Energy drink while also displaying the company’s complete product line.

KTNV is owned by New York Stock Exchange-traded Journal Communications, Inc. The Company owns television stations, radio stations and newspapers in Arizona, Wisconsin, California, Florida and other major markets throughout the country.

In the interview, Owens stresses the health factor of EQ, “No sugar, five calories.”

Owens continued, “The flavors are super. We have Mo Apple and Strawberry Dream. It takes about 30 seconds to get going.”

Chief Executive Officer Owens also stated that the market for EQ is very large and that he expects EQ Energy drink to be in 5,000 additional stores by year end as the company’s products are already in 45 states. Owens stated that the “Healthy Energy Drink” is being used by students, truck drivers and young adults because of its wide spread appeal.

Owens added toward the end of the interview, “We have three top distributors so we have access to about 150,000 stores.”

Hollywood Media Corp. (NASDAQ:HOLL), a leading provider of online ticketing services and entertainment-related offerings, reported financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2010. As previously announced, the Company has reached a definitive agreement to sell its Broadway Ticketing business subject to the approval of Hollywood Media’s shareholders as well as the satisfaction or waiver of certain other closing conditions set forth in the definitive agreement.

For the 2010 second quarter, net revenues increased 11% to $33.6 million compared to $30.3 million in the prior-year period. Broadway Ticketing revenues, which represented 97% of the Company’s total net revenues, increased 12% versus the prior year period.

Net income for the 2010 second quarter was $0.2 million, or $0.01 per diluted share. This compares to a net loss of $4.8 million, or $0.16 per share, in the prior-year period which included a $5.0 million non-cash impairment charge related to the Ad Sales segment. Net income for the 2010 second quarter was impacted by $0.2 million in legal expenses related to the proposed sale of the Broadway Ticketing business, a $0.2 million increase in inventory reserve to reflect the Company’s decision to carry more ticketing inventory to meet demand, a $0.1 million early termination fee on an office lease in order to downsize the Company’s corporate offices in Boca Raton, Florida, and $0.1 million in payroll costs in the Broadway Ticketing business relating to the proposed sale.

Thursday, March 7, 2013

Is Cirrus Logic Still a Great Investment?

Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL  ) , the former golden child that could do no wrong, now can't seem to get anything right. After peaking at $705 back in September, the company lost its way with the Maps fiasco, followed that up with reports of lackluster sales at the iPhone 5 launch, saw those that were sold arrive pre-damaged, disappointed with the pricing on the iPad Mini, offered up a big earnings miss, gave gloomy guidance for the coming holiday season -- and we hadn't even gotten out of October yet!

Today Apple's stock trades at $446, a loss of more than one-third of its value, and all the suppliers that had been riding its gravy train with biscuit wheels went off the rails with it. TriQuint Semiconductor (NASDAQ: TQNT  ) is down 38% since September, Skyworks Solutions (NASDAQ: SWKS  ) is 33% lower, and Cirrus Logic (NASDAQ: CRUS  ) , feeling the pain most acutely than most, has tumbled more than 45%.

CRUS data by YCharts.

That could be because more so than most other suppliers, Cirrus lives and dies by Apple, selling almost all the integrated circuits it makes to the iPhone and iPad maker. It counted on Apple for 91% of its revenue in its fiscal third quarter! In comparison, TriQuint counts on Apple for just under a third of its revenue (Foxconn, the builder of many of Apple's products, represented 31% of its sales in the latest quarter). Skyworks was similarly situated with 29% of its revenue coming from Foxconn.

With Apple seeing demand for its iPhone 5 weaken, it naturally cut back on orders for them and the components that go with them. And its suppliers are falling as the markets tremble at what that portends.

But the Fool's senior tech analyst Eric Bleeker thinks investors are missing an important driver for Cirrus's future growth and valuation. He points out the iPhone 5 has more of its ICs in it than the 4S does, but both phones were the top-selling smartphones on the market, beating out the heralded Samsung Galaxy series. So when the next iteration of the iPhone rolls around, Cirrus Logic will most likely not have lost any positioning in the hardware and may just see even more placement inside.

Apple of my eye
Currently its stock trades at 10 times earnings and just 6.5 times estimates, but with analysts still pegging long-term earnings growth north of 25% annually, its sub-$25 share price makes it very cheap, particularly when you compare it to its growth potential. Analysts could cut those growth estimates in half and it would still offer an attractive valuation.

Famed value investor John Neff once noted investors are great at drawing straight lines out to infinity. When a stock is rising, they extrapolate that growth as they imagine the good times continuing forever. Similarly, when a stock is falling, they tend to picture it falling to zero. Neither scenario is correct, and when it comes to Apple, I feel pretty confident saying the stock ain't going to zero!

This is simply momentum looking in the rearview mirror and giving Apple critics their day in the sun. Sure, they've been given plenty of ammo by Apple to launch a fusillade against it, but that doesn't mean the iPhone 6 (or is that the 5S?) when it's finally unveiled won't wow the fanboys and reinvigorate Apple's mojo as iterations gone by have done.

The burned hand learns best
Apple may have already learned its lesson from the iPad Mini mispricing brouhaha, as analysts seem fairly confident we'll see the next iPhone offered at a much lower price to woo smartphone users back. I don't think we'll watch Apple follow Nokia�down the path of offering cut-rate phones to stem customer losses, but we'll likely see some sort of discount, which is all well and good for Cirrus Logic. Because its fortunes are so intimately entwined in those of Apple, upon the latter's resurrection, we'll see the chip maker rise spectacularly again, too.

Yet it also leads one to wonder why, if Apple is essentially buying up every last bit of product Cirrus Logic is churning out, it doesn't just buy the company outright? It has almost $40 billion in cash and equivalents (excluding long-term investments) sitting in the bank and the chip maker's market cap is just over $1.6 billion. It could offer investors a pretty premium and not even break a sweat. In the end, either scenario works out well for investors.

Cirrus Logic is not a broken company, and that represents opportunity for investors.

There's a debate raging as to whether Apple remains a buy. The Motley Fool's senior technology analyst and managing bureau chief, Eric Bleeker, is prepared to fill you in on both reasons to buy and reasons to sell Apple, and what opportunities are left for the company (and your portfolio) going forward. To get instant access to his latest thinking on Apple, simply click here now.

1 Great New Perk for Too-Big-to-Fail Banks

The nation's six largest banks are in the spotlight right now, as the Fed-induced doomsday scenario reveals whether Bank of America (NYSE: BAC  ) , Citigroup (NYSE: C  ) , Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS  ) , JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM  ) , Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS  ) , and Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC  ) can return capital to investors without causing an economic meltdown. They must endure these extra-stringent tests because of their immense size, which has weaved them so inextricably into the economic fabric that if they wobble, we all fall down.

That, of course, is the crux of the too-big-to-fail (TBTF) argument, which contends that these banks must be split into manageable pieces before it's too late. So far, these banks are still intact. Why? Because it's a wonderful thing to be so immense, and privy to so many agreeable perks. Here, for your amusement, are a couple of the most recently reported benefits of being a TBTF bank.

The government is afraid to mess with you
On Wednesday, the U.S. Attorney General testified before the Senate Judiciary Committee,and said, in a nutshell, that the biggest banks have become so large that even the government is loath to charge them with criminal wrongdoing, lest the entire economy become a shambles. And not only the domestic economy, mind you, but the entire world economy.

Although I'm not surprised to hear this, it's still a stunning declaration. While some congresspersons have spoken out�against the fact that no criminal prosecutions have gone forward against big banks for their part in the financial meltdown, nothing has changed. Even the producer of PBS's�Frontline noted, in a recent interview with the Consumerist, that the government is understandably concerned about carrying out a criminal prosecution against a huge financial institution, particularly if there was a chance that the enterprise would be closed down. He saw no problem with individuals being charged, however -- though that hasn't happened very often, either.

Special financing for the big boys
I recently talked about some especially interesting computations by Bloomberg, which point to the fact that the largest banks in this country enjoy a discounted financing scheme, simply because they are deemed too big to fail. Because these banks are assumed to be in line to be rescued if things go topsy-turvy again, the top five banks receive an implicit taxpayer subsidy of $64 billion a year.

Not bad, but the worst part is that without this subsidy, banks like B of A and Citi would make essentially no profit, and other banks, like JPMorgan and Goldman, would make a much teensier one. Wells Fargo, possibly because of its gung-ho mortgage business, would fare a bit better.

TBTF banks: Here to stay?
Is it likely that the calls to break up the banks will be heeded? Probably not, even though it seems as if their ability to bring down the whole house of cards is an outsized threat that needs addressing. Even conservative columnist George Will has pointed out how dangerous it is to have the five biggest banks holding more than half of all bank assets.

For now, at least, it's great to be TBTF. And every day, it's getting better.

Wells Fargo's dedication to solid, conservative banking helped it vastly outperform its peers during the financial meltdown, and probably accounts for the fact that it could still make a profit without that big subsidy. Today, Wells is the same great bank as ever, but with its stock trading at a premium to the rest of the industry, is there still room to buy, or is it time to cash in your gains? To help figure out whether Wells Fargo is a buy today, I invite you to download our premium research report from one of The Motley Fool's top banking analysts. Click here now for instant access to this in-depth take on Wells Fargo.

A Win-Win Multiple Sclerosis Deal?

Biogen Idec (NASDAQ: BIIB  ) is buying the full rights to multiple sclerosis drug Tysabri from Elan (NYSE: ELN  ) for $3.25 billion. Investors are cheering Biogen and booing Elan based on the changes in their valuations today.

Seems about right to me.

Gaining full rights to the drug is a great move for Biogen. In addition to the upfront payment, Biogen owes a royalty of 12% for the first year, 18% on the first $2 billion in sales in subsequent years, and 25% on sales above $2 billion. But even with those payments, Biogen expects the deal to add $0.20 to $0.30 per share to the bottom line this year.

More importantly, having full control over the sales and marketing of the drug should help Biogen's overall business plan. The company also sells the multiple sclerosis drug Avonex and should have an oral drug for the condition -- BG-12, to be sold under the brand name Tecfidera -- approved by the Food and Drug Administration shortly.

The ability to coordinate promotion of the three drugs should minimize the cannibalization of sales, except when it makes sense for the company, and maximize the fight with Novartis' (NYSE: NVS  ) Gilenya�and Teva Pharmaceuticals' (NYSE: TEVA  ) Copaxone, its major competition in the oral and injected space respectively. Both Novartis and Teva should be very worried about how much stronger this deal has made Biogen.

The deal also gives Biogen full control over its own destiny. The biotech put itself up for sale in 2007, but couldn't find a buyer, likely because a change in control gave Elan the ability to buy the rights to Tysabri away from a potential suitor. With that part of the partnership abolished, Biogen is more attractive as a takeout target.

On the surface, the deal isn't that bad for Elan. Freeing up the change-in-control provision also makes it a more attractive takeout candidate, and Elan now has a sizable chunk of cash to stock its pipeline with.

The latter is likely what's worrying investors. Management hasn't exactly been the best steward of the company's cash. Use of private jets, for instance, have been a sore subject with investors, especially as the drugmaker laid off workers.

This could be a win-win deal if Tysabri sales continue to grow and Elan makes good use of its new-found wealth. The former seems likely, but I think investors are right to be questioning the latter.

While you can certainly make huge gains in biotech and pharmaceuticals, the best investing approach is to choose great companies and stick with them for the long term. In our free report "3 Stocks That Will Help You Retire Rich," we name stocks that could help you build long-term wealth and retire well, along with some winning wealth-building strategies that every investor should be aware of.�Click here now�to keep reading.

DIRECTV Crushes Earnings Estimates

DIRECTV (Nasdaq: DTV  ) reported earnings on Feb. 14. Here are the numbers you need to know.

The 10-second takeaway
For the quarter ended Dec. 31 (Q4), DIRECTV met expectations on revenues and crushed expectations on earnings per share.

Compared to the prior-year quarter, revenue grew and GAAP earnings per share grew significantly.

Gross margins dropped, operating margins shrank, net margins grew.

Revenue details
DIRECTV reported revenue of $8.05 billion. The 19 analysts polled by S&P Capital IQ wanted to see sales of $8.03 billion on the same basis. GAAP reported sales were 7.9% higher than the prior-year quarter's $7.46 billion.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Dollar amounts in millions. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

EPS details
EPS came in at $1.41. The 21 earnings estimates compiled by S&P Capital IQ predicted $1.13 per share. GAAP EPS of $1.55 for Q4 were 53% higher than the prior-year quarter's $1.01 per share.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

Margin details
For the quarter, gross margin was 45.0%, 90 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was 16.1%, 10 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. Net margin was 11.7%, 210 basis points better than the prior-year quarter.

Looking ahead
Next quarter's average estimate for revenue is $7.63 billion. On the bottom line, the average EPS estimate is $1.26.

Next year's average estimate for revenue is $32.07 billion. The average EPS estimate is $5.10.

Investor sentiment
The stock has a three-star rating (out of five) at Motley Fool CAPS, with 732 members out of 809 rating the stock outperform, and 77 members rating it underperform. Among 221 CAPS All-Star picks (recommendations by the highest-ranked CAPS members), 208 give DIRECTV a green thumbs-up, and 13 give it a red thumbs-down.

Of Wall Street recommendations tracked by S&P Capital IQ, the average opinion on DIRECTV is outperform, with an average price target of $57.47.

Internet software and services are being consumed in radically different ways, on new and increasingly mobile devices. Is DIRECTV on the right side of the revolution? Check out the changing landscape and meet the company that Motley Fool analysts expect to lead "The Next Trillion-dollar Revolution." Click here for instant access to this free report.

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Ski Property Bargains Grow Scarce

Owning property in ski country became a reality for many bargain hunters who had capital to spare during the U.S. housing market’s downward spiral, but analysts say things are starting to turn around in America’s ski resort towns like Aspen, Colorado, and Park City, Utah. Zillow reports that homes in both locations saw modest gains in the year ending at the end of January, but there are still bargains to be had. Prices may be on the rise, but compared to what experts anticipate the market is still ripe with deals and for those who want a slice of ski country they may have better luck buying early. For more on this continue reading the following article from TheStreet.

Good real estate deals are available in many U.S. ski areas these days because of the housing bust -- but things are beginning to go downhill for bargain hunters.

"Buyers had more of the upper hand for a long time in many markets, but that dynamic is starting to change," says Andrew Ernemann, president of the Aspen Board of Realtors in ski-friendly Aspen, Colo.

Ernemann, a broker/associate at realty firm B.J. Adams & Co. says Aspen home prices stabilized in 2012 after tumbling during the Great Recession.

"There are still values to be found, but the market is much more in balance," he says.

In the ski mecca of Park City, Utah, Jeff Spencer of Resorts West Real Estate reports that Realtors saw an uptick in sales beginning Jan. 1.

"[Buyers] have decided that we've hit bottom, so they might as well buy now," says Spencer, who's also president of the Park City Board of Realtors.

Market tracker Zillow.com estimates median Park City home prices rose 9.2% over the 12 months ended Jan. 31 to reach $433,700. Similarly, the typical Aspen home value gained 7.1% over the past year to hit $1.14 million, according to Zillow.

Still, price in both towns have managed only to hike partway back up the mountain toward their previous peaks.

Zillow (Z) estimates Aspen's average home prices are still off 34.5% from an early 2008 high of $1.74 million, while Park City values are 21.7% below their pre-recession peak of $554,200.

"People might have missed the bottom, but still we're close enough to it that this is a good time to jump in," Spencer says.

Here are some tips from Ernemann, Spencer and other experts on how to ice the best deal on the ski home of your dreams:

Know when to buy
Rich buyers historically propped up Aspen's housing prices even when the U.S. economy tanked, but even they couldn't protect the local market from the Great Recession and the recent housing bust.

"We learned in 2008 and 2009 that we're not immune to broad economic cycles," Ernemann says.

So buyers looking for the best prices in ski country should obviously hunt for deals when the housing market and broad economy are weak -- as they still somewhat are today.

The time of year when you look for ski properties can also make a big difference.

For instance, Ernemann says Aspen's bargain hunters often wait until just past the community's key February/March and July/August home-buying seasons and focus on properties that didn't sell.

Only pay for what you want
Prices on ski homes and condos tend to vary based on a wide range of location-related factors, from the quality of a property's mountain view to how close it is to ski trails, shops and restaurants.

Experts recommend deciding ahead of time what you want nearby and what you're not willing to pay extra for.

"A family with kids might want a great family space, while a jet-set couple with no children might just want to be near the local bars and restaurants," Ernemann says. "That's important to think about, because the further you get from heart of [a ski town] or the slopes, the more bang you'll typically get for your buck."

Consider nearby alternatives
Sometimes you can find ski-house bargains by getting off the beaten path -- literally.

Spencer says many homes in his town are right on ski trails, but people looking for deals can buy properties that aren't and hop on Park City's complimentary buses to reach the slopes.

"If you're on a ski trail, that obviously increases a home's price," he says.

Ernemann says Aspen-area househunters on a budget should consider Snowmass Village, Colo., some eight miles away.

"It's still part of the same resort community, but real estate there has been slower to recover and there are some great opportunities for buyers," he says.

Check a property's rental value
If you plan to rent out your ski property when you're not using it, make sure you know before you buy how it will fare in the rental market.

Ernemann says agents who show you properties will often prepare a free rental analysis for you.

If you're worried about a broker's objectivity, most ski communities have lots of property-management firms that will give you a free market analysis in hopes of getting your future business.

Understand second-home mortgages and taxes
Some lenders have different underwriting standards for second-home mortgages, so don't assume you'll qualify for a loan or get today's lowest rates if you're buying a vacation property.

Ernemann says some second-home buyers end up paying around 0.5 to 1 percentage point higher interest these days than they would for a loan on a primary residence.

"Some banks charge [a] premium on interest for second homes, although the spread isn't nearly as much as it used to be," he says.

Buyers should also understand how federal tax rules apply to vacation homes.

For instance, you can generally deduct the mortgage interest you'll pay on your vacation property -- but only on the first $1.1 million that you borrow for both your primary and secondary homes.

Internal Revenue Service rules get even more complicated if you rent your ski property out for more than 14 days per year, so consider consulting with a good tax adviser before buying.

Krispy Kreme to Open 10 Stores in Taiwan

Krispy Kreme (NYSE: KKD  ) is to expand further into the Asian market by opening 10 stores in Taiwan. The company has signed an agreement with local conglomerate Huan Hsin to develop the outlets.

U.S.-based Krispy Kreme is continuing its effort to expand internationally. At the moment, it has more than 730 stores in 22 countries. In Asia, its outlets can be found in mainland China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, the Philippines, South Korea, and Thailand.

Huan Hsin is a family owned conglomerate that holds a number of restaurant properties, particularly in mainland China. It is a licensed Krispy Kreme franchisee in Taiwan.

Is Nordstrom Lowballing Its Forecast?

Last Thursday, upscale department store operator Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN  ) reported EPS of $1.40, which beat analyst estimates. For three years in a row, Nordstrom has delivered double-digit growth in sales and EPS, with same-store sales up by at least 7% each year. This run of consistently strong performance has helped Nordstrom's stock bounce back from its lows below $10 during the 2008-2009 financial crisis.

Nordstrom 5-Year Price Chart, data by YCharts.

However, Nordstrom's management gave a somewhat subdued outlook for 2013. Same-store sales growth is projected to slow to a range of 3.5% to 5.5%, with total sales up 4.5% to 6.5%, primarily as a result of new Nordstrom Rack store openings, offset by the return to a 52-week fiscal year (the 2012 fiscal year had 53 weeks). EPS of $3.65 to $3.80 is projected to be just slightly higher than 2012's EPS of $3.56. While this is hardly a disastrous forecast, the company's recent performance suggests that management may be taking a conservative approach to guidance. There is a very good chance that Nordstrom will be able to maintain its strong sales momentum and meet or exceed the high end of the guidance range.

Growth initiatives
On the earnings conference call last week, CEO Blake Nordstrom outlined a growth strategy centered around heavy investments in online sales and Nordstrom Rack, along with incremental expansion of the Nordstrom full-line stores. This strategy rightly focuses on the highest-potential areas. In 2012, online sales grew by 37%, while same-store sales grew by 7.4% at Nordstrom Rack. Nordstrom opened 15 new Nordstrom Rack stores last year, boosting total sales in the Rack division by 20%. By contrast, full-line stores saw a low-single-digit increase for the full year, culminating in a 2.2% increase last quarter, with no new store openings.

The pace of sales increases in the online and Rack divisions is tipping the sales balance toward those higher growth areas, which ought to improve sales growth going forward. In fact, Nordstrom plans to double the number of Nordstrom Rack locations over the next four years, by which point nearly 50% of total company revenue could come from direct (online) sales and Nordstrom Rack.

Upside factors
For 2013, Nordstrom's management is projecting low-single-digit same-store sales growth in the full-line and Rack stores, and over 20% growth in online sales. Full-line stores are thus expected to deliver sales growth similar to last year's, but growth is expected to slow dramatically at Nordstrom Rack and online.

The maturing of the online business, which reached $1.3 billion last year, will eventually lead to slower growth rates, just because maintaining the same percentage growth rate requires adding more revenue as the revenue base grows. That said, online revenue growth actually accelerated last year, from around 30% in 2011 to 37% in 2012. With this level of momentum, 20% growth seems like a very conservative target.

The Nordstrom Rack growth projections also seem conservative. Management has stated that it usually takes three years for a new location to mature, and Nordstrom has added 50 Nordstrom Racks in the past three years. Having so many newer "maturing" locations boosts the overall same-store sales performance of the Rack division. Moreover, the company is removing some cash registers from Nordstrom Rack stores (to be replaced with mobile checkout devices for associates), which will create additional selling space and should help sales. These factors could boost Nordstrom Rack's same-store sales performance to the mid-to-high single digits.

Downside factors
While there are plenty of reasons to believe that Nordstrom can outperform its guidance, investors should remember that broader economic weakness could drag down growth. Consumer confidence readings have dropped since late last year. While lower-end retailers are bearing the brunt of this weakness, luxury retailers may also be affected this year. Most notably, wealthy Americans are facing a higher tax rate and caps on itemized deductions as a result of legislation passed in early January. Sharp cuts in government spending set to go into effect beginning in March will further slow economic growth and cut into consumer spending.

Moreover, Nordstrom has been outperforming competitors, which may not be sustainable. Saks (NYSE: SKS  ) , which is Nordstrom's closest competitor among publicly traded companies, posted 4.3% same-store sales growth through October. (Saks will report its fourth-quarter sales and earnings results this week.) Macy's (NYSE: M  ) reported a similar same-store sales growth rate of 3.7% for fiscal year 2012. Macy's, like Nordstrom, has been one of the strongest-performing retail stocks over the past few years, and slowing sales growth there could be a leading indicator for future sales trends at Nordstrom.

Foolish bottom line
While there are factors pulling in each direction, on balance I think that Nordstrom has lowballed its 2013 forecast. The company is projecting noticeable slowdowns in the growth rates of Nordstrom Rack and the online business. Economic weakness and a "reversion to the mean" relative to competitors will most likely prevent Nordstrom from delivering a fourth year of 7% same-store sales growth, but there is definitely upside to the company's forecast. In light of Nordstrom's solid trajectory, the company is definitely worth a second look for growth and value investors alike.

Find other top retail stocks
The retail space is in the midst of the biggest paradigm shift since mail order took off at the turn of last century. Only those most forward-looking and capable companies will survive, and they'll handsomely reward those investors who understand the landscape. You can read about the 3 Companies Ready to Rule Retail in The Motley Fool's special report. Uncovering these top picks is free today; just click here to read more.

Your Client’s Brain: What Makes Us So Vulnerable to Stress?

Below is the second of eight new articles by Olivia Mellan and Sherry Christie that continue the discussion on Your Client’s Brain that began with Investment Advisor’s February 2013 cover story—Double Think: Getting Past the Conflict in Your Clients’ Two Brains—and a feature article—Second Thoughts: Making Better Decisions—in the March 2013 issue of IA. 

In those articles, Mellan and Sherry shared the latest findings on the brain and suggested how that knowledge can be used by advisors to better understand their clients, and to help their clients make better decisions. 

Human brains are structured to react swiftly and forcefully to negative stimuli such as social aggression and other potential hazards. Neuropsychologist Rick Hanson explained that this “negativity bias” dates back to caveman days, when we could take time contemplating such positive rewards as food and shelter, but had to react instantly to possible life-or-death threats. (This is also why we acquire strong dislikes more quickly than strong likes, Hanson noted.)

A certain amount of stress can make us more engaged and productive, as AdvisorOne.com columnist Angie Herbers noted last July in “Stress for Success.” But when the level of stress passes a certain point, our performance starts to fall off. Trying to compensate by pushing ourselves and those around us merely increases the stress.

Aside from physical wear and tear, such constant fight-or-flight alertness can lead to pessimism, anxiety, irritability and feelings of helplessness or aversion. Eventually the overload may pop our emotional circuit-breakers, leading to alcohol or drug addiction, relationship problems or even a breakdown.

"Remember," says Hanson, "the first, most primal emotion was fear. Our ancestors needed to eat luch, not be lunch." Knowing that fear and the need for security trump everything else, an advisor should pay attention to clients' anxiety and continually try to reduce their fears so they can think clearly.

Hanson’s advice for rebalancing the negativity bias:

  • Look for positive facts and let them become positive experiences. You might consider some of the small pleasures of ordinary life, such as a modest achievement or a feeling of being appreciated, respected or fulfilled.
     
  • Savor the positive experience for 10 to 30 seconds. Intensify it so you can feel it in your body and emotions.
     
  • Sense this experience soaking into your brain and body. Let it register deeply in your emotional memory.
  • ------

    We invite you to visit the Your Client’s Brain landing page on AdvisorOne for additional archived and ongoing coverage of this important topic.

    3 Shares With Potential for a Fast 20% Rise

    LONDON -- Even in a year when the FTSE 100 has already advanced 9.2%, some blue-chip shares have room to move higher still.

    Here are three shares that could deliver big returns in the short term.

    1. BP
    If�BP� (LSE: BP  ) (NYSE: BP  ) shares were to rise 20% from here, the company's share price would be 540 pence. Since the Gulf of Mexico disaster, the highest that the shares have traded is 500 pence.

    BP shares currently trade on a 2013 P/E of just 8.1 times forecasts. The company is expected to pay dividends that add up to a 5.4% yield for this year.

    The stock is currently being held back by worries over an ongoing court case relating to the Gulf of Mexico disaster. If the result is anything other than a huge fine for BP, expect the shares to rise immediately.

    BP's new deal with Rosneft could also transform investor perceptions.

    2. Royal Bank of Scotland
    In January this year, shares of�Royal Bank of Scotland� (LSE: RBS  ) (NYSE: RBS  ) were changing hands for 370 pence. That's 18% ahead of where we are today.

    Sentiment toward the banks has been battered by Payment Protection Insurance miselling, LIBOR fixing and interest rate swap miselling. Due to a collection of (hopefully) one-offs and technical accounting reasons, RBS was forced to report a huge loss for 2012.

    This has shrouded the bank's recovery. By a number of measures, RBS is fast-improving. As so few commentators are mentioning the good news from RBS, this feels like a point from which sentiment can only improve.

    3. Kazakhmys
    Kazakhmys� (LSE: KAZ  ) is one of the most volatile shares in the FTSE 100. It always has been.�So far in 2013, its shares are down 28.2%. In the last year, the stock is off by almost 40%.

    Kazakhmys is a copper miner. As such, its share price is a geared play on the price of the raw material and the global economy. When the price of copper reached a peak back in October, Kazakhmys shares were 40% higher at 770 pence.

    If copper can turn higher, Kazakhmys shares will soar.�The shares trade at just 7.4 times expected earnings for 2013, with a forecast yield of 1.8%.

    Selecting shares that could rise significantly due to a small change in sentiment is one of the quickest ways to boost investment returns that I know. For more strategies that could help you�accelerate your wealth-building, we have prepared a special free report�"10 Steps to Making a Million In the Market."�This publication is 100% free and will be delivered to your inbox immediately. Just�click here�to get your copy today.

    link

    Wednesday, March 6, 2013

    ANN Earnings: An Early Look

    Earnings season is winding down, with most companies already having reported their quarterly results. But there are still some companies left to report, and Ann�Taylor parent ANN (NYSE: ANN  ) is one of them. The key to making smart investment decisions with stocks releasing their quarterly reports is to anticipate how they'll do before they announce results, leaving you fully prepared to respond quickly to whatever inevitable surprises arise.�

    The women's retail niche has been a challenging place for investors lately, as companies have had a tough time navigating the changing fashion trends to maintain consistent success. ANN bounced sharply higher during the summer, but since then, investors have gotten nervous again. Let's take an early look at what's been happening with ANN�over the past quarter and what we're likely to see in its quarterly report on Friday.

    Stats on ANN

    Analyst EPS Estimate

    $0.01

    Change From Year-Ago EPS

    (90%)

    Revenue Estimate

    $617.8 million

    Change From Year-Ago Revenue

    9%

    Earnings Beats in Past 4 Quarters

    4

    Source: Yahoo! Finance.

    Will ANN disappoint its investors this quarter?
    Analysts have lost confidence over the past month in their projections on ANN's earnings, slashing what had been an optimistic $0.25 per share call for the just-ended quarter to just $0.01 and similarly reducing fiscal 2014 estimates. Shareholders have had similar qualms, as the stock has dropped 9% since early December.

    We've already gotten a sense of just how bad ANN's fourth quarter will be, as the company announced preliminary results early last month. With poor anticipated revenue figures resulting from weak holiday sales and the fallout from Hurricane Sandy during November, ANN shares dropped 7% after the news was announced. The company's Loft stores were particularly weak, having to boost promotions to dump inventory. Even modest growth from the Ann�Taylor segment wasn't enough to offset overall weakness.

    Admittedly, ANN isn't the only women's retail chain to run into challenges. Coldwater Creek (NASDAQ: CWTR  ) widened its loss estimates for the holiday quarter back in January, citing a similar need for promotional sales that hit the company's long-struggling margins. Even the relatively strong Chico's FAS (NYSE: CHS  ) , which has undergone a highly successful restructuring over the past couple of years, has given up some its share-price gains, as it announced slowing same-store sales gains during the holiday quarter.

    In its quarterly report, watch for ANN to discuss its strategy to get same-store sales back up, as well as how it can use its online presence to boost revenue. Given how quickly trends get established in this industry, it's essential for ANN to nip any emerging downward trend in the bud now before it gets worse.

    The best investing approach is to choose great companies and stick with them for the long term. The Motley Fool's free report, "3 Stocks That Will Help You Retire Rich," names stocks that could help you build long-term wealth and retire well, along with some winning wealth-building strategies that every investor should be aware of.�Click here now�to keep reading.

    Click here to add ANN to My Watchlist, which can find all of our Foolish analysis on it and all your other stocks.

    American Tower Sells $1.8 Billion in Asset-Backed Securities

    American Tower (NYSE: AMT  ) has raised $1.8 billion from the sale of asset-backed securities. Those bonds, which are divided into two series, are secured by revenue from leases on the company's communication sites. American Tower holds 16,765 such leases on more than 5,000 sites across the US.

    The first series boasts a principal balance of $500 million, an interest rate of 1.551%, and a final maturity of March 2043. The figures for the second are $1.3 billion, 3.07%, and March 2048.

    According to The Wall Street Journal, this is the largest issue of asset-backed securities outside of the automobile loan sector since 2009.

    The company said that the proceeds from the issue will be used to retire debt.

    Ambac Sags as Q1 Reported Loss Widens

    Shares of bond insurer Ambac Financial Group (ABK) are off 14 cents, or 10%, at $1.32 after the company this morning reported a Q1 net loss per share of $2.39, more than double the $1.36 net loss reported a year earlier.

    The Q1 loss was largely a result of consolidating $495 million worth of “variable interest entities” as the result of adopting newly issued accounting standards.

    Without that charge, it’s fair to say the company’s net loss would have narrowed in the quarter, to roughly 67 cents per share.

    Premia earned in the quarter fell by 36% to $125.2 million. Cash and equivalents was roughly in line with the prior year, at $115 million.

    The total deficit for the company narrowed to $1.5 billion from $1.6 billion a year earlier, and book value improved from a negative $7.95 to a negative $7.39.

    First to Die: Groupon or Zynga?

    The following video is from Wednesday's Investor Beat, in which host Chris Hill and analysts Austin Smith and Eric Bleeker dissect the hardest-hitting investing stories of the day.

    Shares of daily deal site Groupon (NASDAQ: GRPN  ) and social gaming company Zynga (NASDAQ: ZNGA  ) have had a rough 12 months. Which stock is in more trouble? In this installment of Investor Beat, our analysts discuss the future of the embattled companies.

    Groupon's story is one of the American Dream. The company went from 400 subscribers in 2008 to over 150 million today. While this story is definitely one of triumph on a business level, its success most certainly�hasn't�been shared by investors. Company shares have fallen over 80% over the past year and left investors panicked. Will this company live out its American Dream or leave shareholders empty-handed? In order to answer that question, our analyst has compiled a premium research report with in-depth analysis on whether you should buy or sell Groupon right now and why. Simply click here now to get started.

    The relevant video segment can be found between 2:49 and 4:00.

    Vodafone Group Soars as Verizon Considers Options

    LONDON -- Shares in�Vodafone� (LSE: VOD  ) (NASDAQ: VOD  ) leaped 6.1%, or 10.30 pence, to reach 178.90 pence in early trade this morning, following news from across the pond that�Verizon Communications� (NYSE: VZ  ) is mulling over its options regarding its relationship with the U.K.-based telecommunication group. This could lead either to the U.S. company buying out Vodafone's stake in Verizon Wireless, or a�tie-up between the two.

    Reports from Bloomberg state that representatives from the two Goliaths met as recently as December, at which the option of a full merger was discussed.�With Vodafone valued at 83 billion pounds and Verizon at 90 billion pounds, a combination of the two would form history's�biggest corporate merger.

    However, it is believed that talks stalled mainly over�leadership and the location of a new company, which means that a�buyout or partial sale of Vodafone's stake in Verizon Wireless is more likely, according to sources. Additionally,�a merger would bring with it outside scrutiny concerning�a potential adverse impact on competition.

    Verizon's interest in gaining full control of the Verizon Wireless operation is understandable, as�it is its most profitable division.�Vodafone's current 45% share is thought to be valued at around $115 billion, which would inject a considerable cash pile into its coffers should a deal be reached. Discussions are set to resume this year.

    If you already hold Vodafone shares and you're looking for a stock on a similar yield, then you may wish to read�this exclusive free in-depth report.�The FTSE 100 company in question offers a 5.7% income, and�might be worth 850 pence�versus around 730 pence currently. Just�click here�to download the report -- it's absolutely free.

    link

    Russia Likely to Contribute to Cyprus Bailout

    NICOSIA, Cyprus (AP) -- Cyprus' finance minister says Russia is likely to contribute money to a rescue package that the cash-strapped country is trying to finalize with eurozone partners.

    Vassos Shiarly says leaders from the other 16 EU countries that use the euro are in "high level" talks with Moscow about a contribution to the bailout.

    He told The Associated Press in an interview Tuesday that "it's probable" that Russia would help.

    A bailout would likely be worth as much as the tiny country's entire yearly economic output of �17.5 billion ($23.51 billion), raising questions over whether it will be able to pay it back.

    Cyprus has already received a low interest, �2.5 billion ($3.36 billion) loan from longtime ally Russia to keep it afloat and has asked for a five-year repayment extension.

    10 Shares Trading Near 52-Week Highs

    LONDON -- You know it's a bull market when 46 companies in the FTSE 100 are trading within 3% of their high for the year.

    Here are the 10 of those 46.

    Company

    Price (pence)

    P/E (2013 forecast)

    Yield (2013 forecast)

    Market Cap (millions of pounds)

    HSBC

    728

    10.8

    4.5%

    134,000

    Unilever

    2,657

    18.9

    3.2%

    75,266

    British American Tobacco

    3,508

    15.4

    4.2%

    67,721

    SABMiller

    3,325

    20.8

    2%

    53,031

    Diageo

    1,972

    19.2

    2.4%

    49,478

    Reckitt Benckiser

    4,501

    17.3

    3%

    32,372

    Tesco

    370

    11.6

    4%

    29,708

    National Grid

    725

    13.4

    5.7%

    26,376

    Prudential

    987

    12.8

    3%

    25,222

    Centrica

    355

    12.8

    4.9%

    18,450

    Five stood out in particular.

    1. Unilever (LSE: ULVR  )
    Consumer brands companies are prominent in my top 10, and Unilever owns some of the foremost food and domestic brands. The Anglo-Dutch giant is behind Lynx, Domestos, Magnum, and Hellmann's. These brands and their recognition with consumers means that Unilever products sell in large numbers. This gives Unilever economies of scale, meaning that the company can make a larger percentage profit at the same retail price. Pricing is helped further by the fact that, to many retailers, Unilever's products are "must stock" items.

    Unilever shares are not just at a high for the year; they currently trade at an all-time high.

    With 1.77 euros in earnings per share forecast for 2014, Unilever shares trade at a premium to the rest of the market. However, that premium is well justified. I would not be surprised if the shares continued to make new highs in 2013.

    2. Diageo (LSE: DGE  )
    Just like Unilever, Diageo owns brands that shops and bars must stock, e.g., Smirnoff, Guinness, Captain Morgan, Baileys, and Jose Cuervo, to name a few.

    Similar to Unilever's, Diageo shares have also been making new highs recently. In the last year, the shares are up 31.1%. So far in 2013, they have advanced 10.4%. That's a pretty sharp rise for a 50 billion pound blue chip. The share price movement at Diageo shows that it is possible to make big, quick returns on large caps.

    For 2013 and 2014, earnings growth at an average rate of 10.8% a year is forecast. Dividend growth is expected at a similar rate. With the forecast 2013 yield on the shares now down to 2.4%, some investors are worrying that Diageo has become overpriced.

    3. SABMiller (LSE: SAB  )
    There's not much between SABMiller and Diageo. Like Diageo, SABMiller owns big beer brands: Grolsch, Peroni, Pilsner Urquell, and Miller Genuine Draft are just four.

    Like Diageo's, SABMiller shares trade at an all-time high. The shares are also on a high valuation: The 2014 price-to-earnings ratio is 18.5, with a forecast yield of 2.3%. SABMiller is forecast to grow earnings and dividends faster than Diageo. For the next two years, 13.8% in average annual EPS growth is expected. This is forecast to be met by dividend per share growth of 11.6% per year.

    There is little point agonizing between SABMiller and Diageo. If you are happy to pay the premiums that the market is demanding, just buy both.

    4. Reckitt Benckiser (LSE: RB  )
    Like Unilever, Reckitt Benckiser owns a portfolio of household name brands. Harpic, Calgon, and Dettol are all Reckitt Benckiser products. The company also owns Brasso, Gaviscon, and Mr Sheen.

    The strength of RB's brands has helped the company to increase its dividends to shareholders by an average of 19.5% per annum over the last five years. That growth is expected to decline for the next two years. Earnings growth is also expected to be slower than it has been in the past.

    On a 2014 P/E of 16.4, the valuation is neither cheap nor particularly expensive. Reckitt Benckiser's products are often household must-haves. There is little chance that RB could ever make a loss, meaning that the possibility of shareholders being wiped out anytime soon is near zero.

    5. Tesco (LSE: TSCO  )
    Tesco was one of the most discussed shares of 2012. Following a profit warning at the beginning of last year, the company has been regaining investors' confidence. The result is that the shares are up 16.9% in the last 12 months.

    Tesco has the longest record of successive dividend increases in the FTSE 100. Although the dividend was held at the interim stage, improved trading since then means that another increase for 2013 is likely. Tesco trades at a smaller P/E discount to the average FTSE 100 share. That shouldn't be too surprising: There is little room for substantial growth in its core U.K. market, and Tesco has slipped up recently.

    If you are looking for a share that might deliver the kind of growth required to push its share price to new highs, then check out our analysts' top growth pick for 2013. This share, and the research that went into its selection, are detailed in the free report "The Motley Fool's Top Growth Share For 2013." Our team believes that, of all the companies in the FTSE 350, this world leader is the one that will shoot the lights out in 2013. Just click here to get your copy of this totally free report today.

    Is Harbinger Group Earning Its Keep?

    Margins matter. The more Harbinger Group (NYSE: HRG  ) keeps of each buck it earns in revenue, the more money it has to invest in growth, fund new strategic plans, or (gasp!) distribute to shareholders. Healthy margins often separate pretenders from the best stocks in the market. That's why we check up on margins at least once a quarter in this series. I'm looking for the absolute numbers, so I can compare them to current and potential competitors, and any trend that may tell me how strong Harbinger Group's competitive position could be.

    Here's the current margin snapshot for Harbinger Group over the trailing 12 months: Gross margin is 34.9%, while operating margin is 13.0% and net margin is 2.7%.

    Unfortunately, a look at the most recent numbers doesn't tell us much about where Harbinger Group has been, or where it's going. A company with rising gross and operating margins often fuels its growth by increasing demand for its products. If it sells more units while keeping costs in check, its profitability increases. Conversely, a company with gross margins that inch downward over time is often losing out to competition, and possibly engaging in a race to the bottom on prices. If it can't make up for this problem by cutting costs -- and most companies can't -- then both the business and its shares face a decidedly bleak outlook.

    Of course, over the short term, the kind of economic shocks we recently experienced can drastically affect a company's profitability. That's why I like to look at five fiscal years' worth of margins, along with the results for the trailing 12 months, the last fiscal year, and last fiscal quarter (LFQ). You can't always reach a hard conclusion about your company's health, but you can better understand what to expect, and what to watch.

    Here's the margin picture for Harbinger Group over the past few years.

    Source: S&P Capital IQ. Dollar amounts in millions. FY = fiscal year. TTM = trailing 12 months.

    Because of seasonality in some businesses, the numbers for the last period on the right -- the TTM figures -- aren't always comparable to the FY results preceding them. To compare quarterly margins to their prior-year levels, consult this chart.

    Source: S&P Capital IQ. Dollar amounts in millions. FQ = fiscal quarter.

    Here's how the stats break down:

    • Over the past five years, gross margin peaked at 37.9% and averaged 34.9%. Operating margin peaked at 11.3% and averaged 10.1%. Net margin peaked at 42.3% and averaged 9.9%.
    • TTM gross margin is 34.9%, about the same as the five-year average. TTM operating margin is 13.0%, 290 basis points better than the five-year average. TTM net margin is 2.7%, 720 basis points worse than the five-year average.

    With recent TTM operating margins exceeding historical averages, Harbinger Group looks like it is doing fine.

    Selling to fickle consumers is a tough business for Harbinger Group or anyone else in the space. But some companies are better equipped to face the future than others. In a new report, we'll give you the rundown on three companies that are setting themselves up to dominate retail. Click here for instant access to this free report.

    • Add Harbinger Group to My Watchlist.