After climbing 22K the prior week, weekly jobless claims for the period ended August 7 climbed another 2,000, to 484K. The result compared against economists' expectations for the weekly count to back up to 460K. Sticking stubbornly high over the last forever months, and now rising, this regular data is a stark reminder of the anchored unemployment situation that exists in the labor market. This is evident in the four-week moving average for this data, which shows an average count of 473,500; that's up 14,250 over last week's moving average. Whether it's up or down a little is less of a bother than the fact that it's too high to begin with.
The economy is behaving as badly as we have been warning it would. It is now countering the bounce on inventory restocking that followed panic-low levels of economic activity with a dose of reality. The result is a stagnant economy characterized by staggering and burdensome unemployment and underemployment (16.5%), a profoundly changed lending environment, and a stymied consumer spending situation.
We include the following labor market data for reader utility:
Extended benefits were available in Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, and Wisconsin during the week ending July 24.
The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending July 24 were in Puerto Rico (6.8 percent), Pennsylvania (4.9), California (4.7), Oregon (4.7), New Jersey (4.6), Alaska (4.4), Connecticut (4.4), Nevada (4.4), Wisconsin (4.2), and Rhode Island (4.1).
The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending July 31 were in Wisconsin (+1,901), Georgia (+1,738), Pennsylvania (+1,536), Ohio (+1,188), and New York (+1,159), while the largest decreases were in Indiana (-4,377), Florida (-3,816), Tennessee (-2,465), Illinois (-2,056), and Kentucky (-1,567).
Disclosure: No positions
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