Sunday, June 24, 2012

Intrepid Potash Earnings Preview

Investors never know what to expect for Intrepid Potash (NYSE: IPI  ) , as it has wavered between topping and missing analysts' estimates during the past fiscal year. The company will unveil its latest earnings on Wednesday, Feb. 15. Intrepid Potash and its subsidiaries produce muriate of potash, langbeinite and by-products including salt, magnesium chloride, and metal recovery salts.

What analysts say:

  • Buy, sell, or hold?: Half of analysts think investors should stand pat on Intrepid Potash. Analysts like Intrepid Potash better than competitor Compass Minerals International overall. Zero out of six analysts rate Compass Minerals International a buy compared to three out of 10 for Intrepid Potash.
  • Revenue forecasts: On average, analysts predict $98.4 million in revenue this quarter. That would represent a rise of 2.4% from the year-ago quarter.
  • Wall Street earnings expectations: The average analyst estimate is earnings of $0.32 per share. Estimates range from $0.28 to $0.42.

What our community says:
CAPS All-Stars are solidly backing the stock, with 95.3% awarding it an outperform rating. The community at large is in line with the All-Stars, with 96.3% granting it a rating of outperform. Fools are gung-ho about Intrepid Potash and haven't been shy with their opinions lately, logging 268 posts in the past 30 days. Even with a robust four out of five stars, Intrepid Potash's CAPS rating falls a little short of the community's upbeat outlook.

Management:
Intrepid Potash's profit has risen year over year by an average of more than threefold over the past five quarters. The company's revenue has now risen for two straight quarters. The company increased its gross margin by 12 percentage points in the last quarter. Revenue rose 24.6% while cost of sales rose 3.4% to $66.9 million from a year earlier.

Now let's look at how efficient management is at running the business. Traditionally, margins represent the efficiency with which companies capture portions of sales dollars. Intrepid Potash has seen increasing net margins year over year for the last four quarters. Net margins reflect what percentage of each dollar earned by the company becomes profit. See how Intrepid Potash has been doing for the last four quarters:

Quarter

Q3

Q2

Q1

Q4

Gross Margin

41.3%

46.2%

39.3%

39.2%

Operating Margin

36.6%

42.5%

44.4%

30.4%

Net Margin

22.4%

25.7%

26.9%

18.9%

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Earnings estimates provided by Zacks.

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