Saturday, August 4, 2012

Shadow Inventory Threatens All Major Metro Housing Markets

Investors are pouring into housing markets across the country. According to the November Report of Market Conditions by Inside Mortgage Finance, 20% of all home purchases nationwide are now made by investors. In some major markets, this percentage is much higher.

What attracts investors these days is very different from what drew them during the bubble years. They are not really enticed by appreciation potential and leverage. Investors are lured mainly by low prices and positive cash flows.

Many of them are also searching for an alternative to the ridiculously low rates they now receive from money market funds, U.S. Treasury securities or bank CDs. One knowledgeable Phoenix broker explained that his investor-clients are often 50 and older who have been pulled into residential investing because of the plunge in interest rates they've had to endure. Quite a few have liquid assets over $1 million and are looking for a better return.

Metros that experienced the greatest price bubbles and subsequent collapse have seen hordes of investors leap into their housing markets - especially Las Vegas, Phoenix, several Florida cities, and cities in the California Inland Empire. These investors are fairly confident that prices are nearing a bottom and that the risks of major declines are minimal.

Let's take a look at some of these markets to see whether investors are acting on sound information. The following table from CoreLogic data shows the ten weakest large counties in the U.S. in terms of distressed properties which have not yet been foreclosed and repossessed by lenders as of the end of September 2010.

Top Ten Larger Counties Distressed Mortgage Percentages - 3d Quarter 2010
COUNTY Active Loan Count 90+ Days Delinquent % Delinquent Defaults % Defaults Distressed Total
Miami-Dade 366,775 26,735 7.29% 64,708 17.64% 24.9%
Broward (Ft. Lauderdale) 328,721 21,939 6.67% 44,251 13.46% 20.1%
Orange (Orlando) 204,944 13,020 6.35% 24,839 12.12% 18.5%
Clark (Las Vegas) 360,192 32,932 9.14% 32,388 8.99% 18.1%
Riverside (CA) 368,432 32,622 8.85% 17,965 4.88% 13.7%
Prince George's (MD) 148,228 13,800 9.31% 6,367 4.30% 13.6%
San Bernardino (CA) 315,992 27,051 8.56% 14,980 4.74% 13.3%
San Joaquin (Stockton, CA) 105,519 8,887 8.42% 5,021 4.76% 13.2%
Kern (Bakersfield, CA) 114,247 8,031 7.03% 4,929 4.31% 11.3%
Maricopa (Phoenix) 715,944 43,164 6.03% 31,807 4.44% 10.5%

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