Sunday, July 29, 2012

Facebook Will Create an IPO Black Hole

When Facebook filed for its IPO�a few weeks ago, investors rushed into hot social stocks like Groupon (NASDAQ:GRPN), Zynga (NASDAQ:ZNGA) and LinkedIn (NYSE:LNKD). The result: The Social Stock Tracker�surged more than 9% in one week!

Things have calmed down since then. But as Facebook gets closer to its offering — which is expected to occur in May — the investor intensity will be extreme. If the valuation reaches $100 billion or more, the company will be in the league of marquee tech companies like Google (NASDAQ:GOOG), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Intel (NASDAQ:INTC).

But Facebook’s IPO likely will have another effect: an IPO “black hole.”

Just as a real black hole sucks in everything — including light — Facebook will also get much of the attention and investor capital. Consider that Facebook may raise in excess of $10 billion.

Take a quick look at how this would compare to other recent IPOs:

CompanyTickerAmount RaisedMarket Cap
ZyngaZNGA$1 billion$8.8 billion
GrouponGRPN$700 million$10.4 billion
LinkedInLNKD$351 million$8.7 billion
PandoraP$235 million$2.2 billion
ZillowZ$70 million$945 million

So it stands to reason that it would be crazy for any other dot-com to try to go public before Facebook does. How could it compete? Almost any other company would lurk under Facebook’s shadow — an unfair cloud over what could be a decent prospect.

However, after Facebook comes public, we likely will see a variety of social stocks file for their offerings. Might as well ride the coattails, right?

And that could make the fall an exciting time for the IPO market.

Tom Taulli runs the InvestorPlace blog�IPO Playbook, a site dedicated to the hottest news and rumors about initial public offerings. He also is the author of��The Complete M&A Handbook”,��All About Short Selling��and��All About Commodities.��Follow him on Twitter at�@ttaulli�or reach him via�email. As of this writing, he did not own a position in any of the aforementioned securities.

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