Morgan Stanley’s Katy Huberty today offers some thoughts on Apple’s (AAPL) revenue outlook based on its projected capital expenditures, as outline yesterday in a 10-K filing, for the fiscal year that began in October.
The remarks are akin to those of Barclays Capital’s Ben Reitzesyesterday morning.
Huberty notes that Apple’s projected spending, even excluding $1 billion in capital expenses that will go to the company’s headquarters construction, would be 53% growth in capital spending, year over year. That’s “well above” her estimate for 34% revenue growth for Apple this year.
Like Reitzes, Huberty concludes that means the consensus for 2012 revenue is probably too low: “Apple�s FY12 capital expenditure plans suggest a revenue run-rate closer to our bull case ($184 billion revenue and $50 EPS in CY12).” Consensus is $138.85 billion and $34.49 per share.
Huberty also notes that the 10-K lists Apple’s revenue from China, 12% of the total, and its hard assets in the country, which notes have tracked shipments there of iOS devices. She takes that as an indicator Apple “owns key production equipment at its outsourcing partners.”
Apple shares today are up $3.16, or 0.8%, at $400.57.
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