Wednesday, December 14, 2011

AMD: Raymond James Impressed, Citi Cautious

Ex-Lenovo president Rory Read, now CEO of AMD, has some of the same passion as the chip maker’s legendary — and infamous — founder, Jerry Sanders, according to Raymond James’s Hans Mosesmann.

As Intel (INTC) continues to slide today as debate rages over the company’s cut in outlook yesterday, competitor Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) has broken free, rising 2 cents to $5.32.

Hans Mosesmann with Raymond James today reiterates his Outperform rating on AMD shares, writing that a recent “fireside chat” with newly installed CEO Rory Read (formerly COO of Lenovo) shows him to be every bit as passionate as AMD’s legendary founder, Jerry Sanders.

“Our early read on Mr. Read as AMD��s new CEO: we are impressed,” writes Mosesmann.

Moreover, AMD is in a better spot than Intel, Mosesmann thinks, this quarter, coming off of much lower expectations:

Unlike Intel, AMD��s 4Q11 appears to be in line as we believe the GlobalFoundries yield issues related to Llano gave the company a lower pre-flood base in 3Q11. 1H12 will be tough in terms of hard disk drive (HDD) supply, but Mr. Read indicated that the supply chain is quite a bit more resilient than the Street may think.

Among the tidbits Mosesmann gleaned from his chat with Read is that the company is not ruling out using ARM Holdings (ARMH) designs in its microprocessors, something that is “heresy” for the company, but “quite ! consiste nt with Mr. Read’s philosophy of winning in the market: execution, innovation, and convergence.”

On the other hand, Citigroup’s Glen Yeung today writes that “the risk of an AMD negative pre announcement has increased, given the company��s guidance for sequential revenue increase of +3% +/-2% q/q (similar to Intel��s original +3.3% mid-point), and their greater exposure to low-end desktops.”

Yeung cut his Q4 estimate to $1.61 ill ion in revenue and a six-cent-per-share loss from a prior estimate of $1.74 billion and 3 cents profit.

Perhaps somewhere in between the two, UBS’s Uche Orji this morning reiterates a Buy rating and a $9 price target while cutting his Q4 estimate to $162 billion and 12 cents profit, from a prior $1.77 billion and 17 cents.

Orji thinks investors should look beyond the immediate upset over PCs to the company’s analyst day meeting on February 2nd.

He hopes that meeting will bring AMD’s “vision for next gen low-power processors for tablets, ultrabooks and servers.”

“Key for AMD to regain mindshare,” adds Orji, “is for it to move the debate away from the perception it will get squeezed in the Intel vs ARM battle to one of offering unique value vs Intel and competitive power efficiency and cost + x86 compatibility vs ARM.”

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