The August manufacturing PMIs came in mixed. The U.S. and China surprised on the upside while Japan disappointed with its manufacturing sector barely growing.
|August 2010||July 2010||Trend|
|United States||56.3||55.5||Higher, expanding|
|Euro zone||55.1||56.7||Lower, expanding|
|Spain||51.2||51.6||Softer, expanding slowly|
|Ireland||51.1||51.4||Softer, expanding slowly|
|Japan||50.1||52.8||Weaker, barely expanding|
|Brazil||49.5||51.8||Moved to contraction|
|China||51.7||51.2||Higher, expanding slowly|
|Turkey||51.3||52.8||Softer, expansion slowing|
|South Africa||50.3||49.5||Expanding again|
Sources: Markit; CFLP; ISM; Plexus
The downtrend of our global GDP-weighted Manufacturing PMI for the major economies (U.S., U.K., Euro zone, Japan and China) is now firmly underway. The measure in August came in weaker at 54.1 compared to 55.1 in July, the fourth consecutive decline since the high of 57.6 in April.
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Sources: ISM; Markit; CFLP; Plexus Asset Management.
Sources: ISM; Markit; CFLP, Plexus Asset Management.
The downtrend in the global weighted manufacturing PMI is indicating a rapid deceleration of global manufacturing production growth.
OECD industrial production growth in July is estimated to have slowed to 9% on a year-ago basis from a high of an estimated 10.5% in May. The GDP-weighted global manufacturing PMI suggests that industrial production growth has slowed down further in August to a pace of between 7% and 8%, with a further slowdown in September to approximately 5% to 6%.
Sources: I-Net; Plexus Asset Management; ISM; Markit.
Non-manufacturing and services PMIs due within the next few days are likely to give better insight into where the global economy is heading.