Apple Stock Is the New Microsoft — Good, But Not Good Enough

Microsoft‘s (NASDAQ:MSFT) earnings, reported after the bell Thursday, were good. But like Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), they just weren�t good enough.

Microsoft reported a fiscal first-quarter profit of $5.74 billion, or 68 cents per share. That�s up 6% from last year�s $5.4 billion, or 62 cents per share profit. Revenue also was up to $17.4 billion from $16.2 billion, a 7% rise. But �experts� had expected earnings of 68 cents per share, so MSFT stock started to get hit after hours.

Sound familiar? Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) missed the mark earlier this week, and shares sold off Tuesday as a result. Apple earnings remained strong as usual — net income jumped to $6.62 billion from $4.31 billion, and AAPL stock revenue surged nearly 39% to $28.3 billion. But as investors should know by now, it�s not the numbers that matter, but how those numbers perform against Wall Street forecasts.

In the wake of Microsoft and Apple reporting earnings, it�s worth examining how good companies continue to be sold off because they aren�t �good enough.�

Could Apple Be the Next Microsoft?

Once-dominant tech stock MSFT has been wildly unpopular in recent years. Microsoft’s stock has been languishing in the high $20s for the better part of a decade. And while no one expects Apple to crash from triple digits anytime soon, there are some very real fears lately that AAPL stock could desperately be in need of a second act to stay in favor with investors.

It�s more than a little absurd, I know. The iPhone was Apple�s second act. The iPad was its third. And rumors of an Apple HD TV could very well hint at its fourth. If not the TV, then consider that 93% of Fortune 500 companies are deploying or testing the iPhone for business use — which could be a stunning opportunity for enterprise sales.

But who cares? Apple earnings weren�t as good as they should have been. So the stock sold off.

Microsoft stock watchers should be painfully familiar with this trend. Consider the dead-money performance of Microsoft in the past 10 years despite a strong business that includes:

• A virtual monopoly, with an approximately 83% market share of computer operating systems.
• The ascendance of the Xbox 360 video game console and related products like the Kinect.
• An EPS forecast of almost $3 per share for this fiscal year vs. just $1.62 in fiscal 2009.
• Some $43 billion in cash and equivalents on its balance sheet, even while maintaining a nearly 3% dividend yield.

Aside from the 2008-09 lows, MSFT stock always seems to bounce back strongly after it has sold down to around the $25 level. Investors might not think this tech stock is sexy, but it�s difficult to ignore the profit potential at those valuations. Heck, even right now MSFT has a forward P/E ratio of 8.7 — before today�s earnings sent shares down after hours.

But Microsoft just never seems to muster the momentum for a breakout. And it seems that even modest growth for an already dominant company isn�t good enough. Everyone has become painfully complacent with the rather impressive business of MSFT, no matter how bulletproof a company it is.

Could the same hold true for Apple? Could $400 be the new floor for a stock that is doomed to flail about for the next few years?

Maybe. This week, a Wall Street analyst at BGC Partners did the unthinkable and downgraded Apple stock to �hold� from �buy.� It seems the scorching run of AAPL stock was just too hot for some to hold onto — even in the face of a dominant gadget business and lots of good things in the pipeline.

Apple is perhaps the biggest secular growth story on Wall Street in the past several years, so it�s hard to bet against this company. But as Microsoft has proven, you don�t have to crash and burn to get a bad reputation with investors. You just have to plod along with the same �boring� level of dominance and success.

There�s a very real risk AAPL could follow MSFT in this regard.

Jeff Reeves is the editor of InvestorPlace.com. Write him at editor@investorplace.com, follow him on Twitter via @JeffReevesIP and become a fan of InvestorPlace on Facebook. As of this writing, he did not own a position in any of the aforementioned stocks.