Saturday, June 2, 2012

Enterprise Software: Awaiting An Outbreak Of Merger Mania

Nothing gets the Street’s juices flowing like speculative chatter about M&A.

Ergo, there’s lots of discussion this morning about a new report from FBR Capital analyst David Hilal about the prospects for consolidation in the enterprise software sector. He thinks the flow of M&A deals in the group is going to accelerate this year and into 2011. “Software vendors are flush with cash given the cash-flow rich nature of the software model and more than a handful of vendors have even recently raised additional capital,” he notes.

Hilal even provides eight specific deals he thinks would make strategic sense:

  • Akamai (AKAM) buys Limelight (LLNW), thus strengthening their position in content delivery networks.
  • American Express (AXP) buys Concur (CNQR), provider of expense management software; he ntoes tha the company’s already have a tight partnership.
  • Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) buys McAfee (MFE): This one has already turned into a rumor; the theory is that it would strengthen HP’s hand in security software.
  • Oracle (ORCL) buys Red Hat (RHT), thus extending its reach into the Linux software market.
  • Oracle buy AthenaHealth (ATHN), building on its recent acquisition of Phase Forward to further pursue the health care segment.
  • Salesforce.com (CRM) buys RightNow (RNOW), expanding beyond sales force automation software into customer service and support software.
  • SAP (SAP) buys Tibco (TIBX), boosting the German software giant’s middleware stack.
  • SAP buys Informatica (INFA), in another boost to the company’s software stack.

He then goes on to suggest even more potential deals:

  • Automatic Data Processing (ADP), he says, could buy Concur.
  • Oracle could buy Amdocs (DOX), Ariba (ARBA), Manhattan Associates (MANH) and/or Parametric Technology (PMTC).
  • SAP could buy Salesforce.com.
  • Microsoft could buy Citrix (CTXS) or Limelight.
  • Google could buy Salesforce or Akamai.
  • AT&T or Verizon could buy Akamai.
  • Cisco could buy Riverbed.
  • Microsoft or Google could� buy Nuance (NUAN).

Among the targets noted in the above list:

  • Limelight is down 16 cents, or 4%, to $3.83.
  • Concur is up 20 cents, or 0.5%, to $43.24.
  • McAfee is up 50 cents, or 1.3%, to $40.63.
  • RedHat is up 5 cents, or 0.2%, to $31.51.
  • AthenaHealth is down 2 cents, at $37.08.
  • RightNow is up 8 cents, to $18.91.
  • Tibco is up 13 cents, or 1.2%, to $11.48.
  • Informatica is up 5 cents, or 0.2%, to $25.78.

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