I recently wrote that consumer behavior was changing dramatically in the face of rising oil prices. Demand is down and interest in smaller, more fuel efficient vehicles is growing. The great thing about capitalism is that if we fail to change our ways, markets will do it for us. What is just beginning to happen with oil and consumer behavior is happening on the corporate level dealing with a slowing economy.
That is to say, competition for a share of the consumer dollar is fiercer than at any other time in recent history. Corporations that adapt to the new field of play will survive. Those that don’t won’t.
Let’s take a look at stock pick Walmart (WMT). For most of the new millennium, WMT was getting taken to the cleaners by sleek rival Target (TGT).
Seen mostly as a bargain bin basement with little knack for style, WMT had trouble prying extra dollars away from the consumer. TGT had little trouble increasing dollars spent at its stores as they focused on luxury brands and style at low prices.
That worked great in an expanding economy, but what happens when that growth disappears? (For more on Target’s recent share decline you’ll want to read, “Why are Target Shares Off Target?”)
We are seeing the results before our very eyes. All of a sudden that bargain basement doesn’t look so bad with oil prices hitting $135 per barrel!
In fact, the ChangeWave Alliance has been showing tremendous strength for both Wal-Mart and Cosco since late February. For more details, check out Paul Carton’s recent article, “World Takeover By Wal-Mart and Costco (COST).”
Behavior is changing, and that change is benefiting WMT as they remain focused on pushing lower pr! ices to its consumers.
Target is not faring as well. Those little extra spending sprees by its customers are no longer the norm and as a result TGT results have been less than stellar. TGT will have to find a new formula that will work given the current and expected conditions moving forward.
With the game still being played, it will be interesting to see how things pan out for both companies.
One company that is not faring so well in the current environment is… Sears Holding (SHLD). The star child of private equity guru, Eddie Lampert, SHLD has not fared well with the collapse in economic activity. Highly leveraged to the homebuilding cycle, sales of its large consumer items like dishwashers, refrigerators and laundry machines dropped hard as new home sales fell.
As a result of the slowing sales, shares of SHLD have lost more than $100 per share in just the last year alone. What had been a former high flyer enjoying the benefits of monetizing real estate holdings is now simply a retail stock playing in a very difficult field under very difficult circumstances.
Does Eddie Lampert have it in him to change behavior in a way that generates positive results for shareholders? I’m not so sure. While Mr. Lampert has the skills as a financier, does he have what it takes to adapt to intense competition?
I would be worried if I were a SHLD shareholder. Just today, the company announced that it had lost $56 million in the first quarter coming fall short of Wall Street estimates. Sales dropped 6% as the company blamed higher fuel and food costs for its woes.
The blame game is a natural reaction, but I think SHLD needs to look hard in the mirror. There are retailers that are adapting well to the current environment and even those that may have had trouble in the early stages adjusting strat! egy in a way that is already showing results.
That is not happening at Sears.
Where we go from here is anyone’s guess. I can give Lampert a free pass in the short term, but there needs to be a plan for going forward.
The bottom line: will the company better manage inventories improving its mix of products to enhance sales even in this difficult market? If they do, SHLD will bounce back big. If not, it will be more pain for shareholders.
One market that is still growing and growing fast is China. And more importantly, competition is not nearly as fierce as it is in the United States. Check out Robert Hsu’s China Strategy letter for the companies that can be expected to prosper in that environment.
Jamie Dlugosch
Executive Editor, InvestorPlace
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